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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 26-30

Published 09/25/2011, 06:16 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped against the Swiss franc on Friday, paring some of the week’s gains as a pledge by world financial leaders to respond to the challenges facing the global economy dented safe haven demand.

USD/CHF hit 0.9181 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9054 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 2.75% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8789, the low of September 20 and resistance at 0.9177, last Thursday’s high and a five-month high.

Financial leaders said the G-20 nations are “committed to a strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” after talks in Washington.

Leaders also called on the European Union to take quick action to resolve the financial crisis in the euro zone.

The statement came after warnings from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund that the global economic recovery is at risk.

After its policy setting meeting on Wednesday the Fed said there were “significant downside risks” facing the U.S. economy. The central bank unveiled a plan to trade short-term bonds for long-term ones, in an attempt to boost the economy by pushing down long-term interest rates, a move dubbed “Operation Twist.”

Earlier in the week, the IMF cut its growth forecasts for the global economy to 4% for 2011 and 2012 and said the world economy had entered "a dangerous new phase."

Despite repeated assurances from EU officials, investors have remained concerned over the possibility of a debt default by Greece, boosting safe haven demand for the greenback.

The dollar has benefited from increased safe haven inflows since the Swiss National Bank’s intervention halt the appreciation of the Swiss franc earlier this month.

Elsewhere, the euro rose against the Swiss franc last week, amid speculation that the SNB may move its targeted exchange rate for the franc to 1.25 from 1.20 per euro. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to remain in focus while investors will be closely watching U.S. data on second quarter economic growth in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 26


The U.S. is to produce government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, September 27

In Switzerland, UBS bank is to publish its consumption indicator, an important indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday, September 28

The U.S. is to produce official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. The country is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Later Wednesday, SNB Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak; his comments will be closely scrutinized for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, September 29

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as industry data on pending home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues regarding future monetary policy.

Friday, September 30


Switzerland is to publish the KOF economic barometer, designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal spending and inflation as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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