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FOREX-Dollar struggles on weak U.S. economy view

Published 06/08/2011, 04:01 AM
Updated 06/08/2011, 04:04 AM
EUR/USD
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* Dollar hits 1-mth low vs yen, weighed by U.S. economy view

* Sterling sinks on report of Moody's warning

* Euro supported, ECB expected to signal July rate rise

* EUR/USD gains capped by $1.4700 options barriers

(Updates throughout; previous TOKYO)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped to a one-month low against the yen on Wednesday and stayed under broad selling pressure across the board on the view that a slow U.S. economic recovery will keep interest rates low well into next year.

Sterling was also under fire, falling to a one-month low versus the euro and a session low against the dollar on a media report of a Moody's warning the UK could lose its AAA rating if it missed economic targets. [ID:nWEA5035]

The yen rose broadly in technical trading, pushing down the dollar to 79.75 yen -- its lowest since May 5 -- after a series of stop-loss orders were triggered as the U.S. currency failed to sustain technical support slightly below 80 yen.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday acknowledged the U.S. economy has slowed, fuelling more speculation that rates will stay chained near zero. His comments followed a run of dismal data on U.S. jobs and manufacturing last week. [ID:nN07142566]

While he made no mention of the need for more economic stimulus, market participants saw the possibility of additional quantitative easing after the current round ends this month, if the economy continues to struggle.

"Signs of weakness in the U.S. economy has led to a weaker dollar, and so long as the market speculates about the possibility of another round of quantitative easing, this will weigh on the dollar," said You-Na Park, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

The dollar traded at 79.95 yen in early European trade, clawing back from its lows as traders cited demand from Japanese corporate and retail names as offering some support.

Major stop-loss sell orders were cited around 79.50 yen, close to a low of 79.57 yen reached on May 5.

The euro was little changed on the day at $1.4670 , holding gains made in the past two weeks, although its topside was capped ahead of a hefty options barrier suspected at $1.47.

Market participants cited selling by Asian sovereign names ahead of that level.

Above $1.4700, the euro faces resistance at $1.4732, a 78.6 percent retracement of its May 4-23 fall. A break of that could take it back to the May 4 peak around $1.4939, ahead of the psychological level of $1.5000.

Against the pound, the euro hit a one-month high of 89.76 pence, leaving it on course for a test of the key 90 pence level. Sterling lost around 70 pips against the dollar to hit a session low of $1.6355.

MORE EURO GAINS Many investors expect the euro to push higher, as the ECB on Thursday is widely expected to flag a rate rise for next month, reinforcing the view that euro zone rates will rise much faster than U.S. ones.

While concerns about the impact of Greece's debt problems on the rest of the euro zone will continue to haunt the single currency, the ECB has signalled it is determined to keep raising rates to tame inflation risks.

Buoyancy in stronger euro zone countries including Germany is also seen as adding to the argument for higher rates.

With this in mind, investors awaited a reading of revised euro zone Q1 growth and German industrial production for April later in the day. Some analysts said the euro may suffer some selling if the figures come in weak.

"We expect the ECB to signal a rate hike in July with Trichet's usage of "strong vigilance" in his post-announcement speech tomorrow," JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

"However, any weakness in these two figures today may weigh on market expectations for the next hike, which will likely keep EUR trading heavy."

While ongoing signs of a struggling U.S. economy has stung the dollar, it has also prompted investors to dump riskier assets. This pushed both the higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars down 0.6 percent on the day.

Some in the market said the Aussie was also under selling pressure due to a media report which was bearish on the Australian currency. (Additional reporting by Asia Forex Team; Editing by John Stonestreet)

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