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UPDATE 2-Swiss economy picks up as exports defy franc

Published 03/01/2011, 04:49 AM
Updated 03/01/2011, 04:52 AM

* Swiss Q4 GDP up 0.9 percent q/q vs poll of 0.5 percent

* Swiss PMI for Feb up at 63.5 pts, higher than any forecast

* Goods exports, company investment, consumer spending rise

* Markets bring forward expectation for SNB rate hike

(Adds fresh analyst comment, PMI data, background)

By Catherine Bosley and Sven Egenter

ZURICH, March 1 (Reuters) - The Swiss economy is gaining more momentum than expected despite the record-high franc, prompting markets to brace for an earlier interest rate hike.

The economy posted its strongest performance since late 2007, growing by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the previous quarter, thanks to strong company investment, government consumption and a rise in exports, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said on Tuesday. Economists had expected a slowdown in growth.

Forward-looking indicators, such as the KOF economic barometer, have indicated momentum is still picking up and the Swiss National Bank's chairman has also begun to sound less dour on growth.

In yet another sign of the upswing continuing, the Swiss purchasing managers' index beat expectations and jumped to a seasonally adjusted 63.5 points in February, indicating the sector was picking up steam.

"The GDP data continue to challenge the SNB's expectation of a significant slowdown in growth in response to the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate," said BNP Paribas economist Eoin O'Callaghan.

"The longer the economic data defies the SNB's prediction of a significant slowdown, the more compelling the case for starting the hiking cycle becomes."

The SNB, which so far forecast a slowdown of growth to around 1.5 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2010 due to the franc, holds its next quarterly meeting on March 17. More and more analysts see the economy growing by more than 2 percent.

The SNB is seen holding rates for now because inflation is low, but markets have started bracing for an earlier rate hike than so far anticipated after a string of upbeat news.

"I expect another year of strong growth. Despite the strong franc, that should open the possibility for the SNB to start normalising policy from June," said Julius Baer economist Janwillem Acket.

Interest rate futures price in a high chance of the SNB raising in September its target for the 3-month franc LIBOR, which has been at 0.25 percent since March 2009. Until last week markets were betting on a rate rise in December.

ROBUST EXPORTS

The franc rose against the euro on the release of the GDP figures but then weakened again and was trading at 1.2875 at 0913 GMT, off an intra-day high of 1.2816 per euro.

The euro zone is the top destination for Swiss trade, and a rise of some 15 percent in the safe-haven franc against the euro last year made Swiss goods more expensive abroad, prompting exporters to warn margins were under pressure.

Yet as Switzerland's single most important export market, Germany has underpinned Swiss growth and exports in recent months with its own bouyant economy. In a further sign of strength, German joblessness fell more than expected in January.

The Swiss GDP figures were not, however, the strongest in Europe. Sweden's growth surged 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter from the third, also trouncing forecasts.

Swiss exports of goods rose 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter from the third. The franc's strength did, however, show up in the exports of services, which fell 5.8 percent.

Some of the decline in service exports was due to tourism, Acket said. Swiss hoteliers have been complaining the strong currency has spoiled the winter skiing season.

Private consumption grew 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the third. Government consumption increased by 1.2 percent in that period while company investment rose 6.3 percent and construction was 1.2 percent stronger.

Gross domestic product increased by 3.1 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared with a forecast of 2.8 percent. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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