👀 Ones to watch: The MOST undervalued stocks to buy right nowSee Undervalued Stocks

FOREX-Dollar soft, euro firm on contrasting policy views

Published 10/13/2010, 04:14 AM
Updated 10/13/2010, 04:16 AM

* Euro hovers below $1.40 after Fed minutes, Weber comments

* Euro break above $1.4025-45 would open way to more gains

* Dollar up vs yen, at record low vs Swissie, index soft

(Changes dateline, adds quote, detail, previous TOKYO)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar came under broad selling pressure on Wednesday, with investors pushing it towards key lows against the euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies on more signs pointing to U.S. monetary easing.

The euro looked set to challenge $1.40 and its eight-month high at $1.4030 after Federal Reserve minutes on Tuesday reinforced expectations of more quantitative easing. A sustained break above $1.4025-45 was seen heralding further gains.

Dealers said hawkish comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber on Tuesday, which highlighted the difference in direction between Fed and ECB policy, gave the euro an added lift, with talk of a big stop-loss buy order lurking just below $1.40.

"In the G4 space, the ECB is the only central bank that is talking of an exit policy and that is helping the euro," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.

"But by the looks of it, the market has already priced in a fair degree of quantitative easing by the Fed in the past few weeks. So we expect euro/dollar to hold a range from here on."

The euro rose 0.33 percent to $1.3970, having earlier triggered stop-loss orders around $1.3950-60 and then running into selling at $1.3970-90. Resistance was expected at $1.3985, Friday's high, with talk of more stop-losses above that level.

The $1.4030 high is seen as the target to beat if the euro is to push higher rather than correct downwards.

The euro gained across the board, climbing against the yen, sterling and the Swiss franc.

Robert Ryan, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore, said although the U.S. QE theme was starting to look overpriced, there was a risk reserve diversification by Asian central banks could support the euro.

"As long as the market continues to see the (Bank of Japan, the Bank of England) and the Fed pumping liquidity in, it's going to go into emerging markets and emerging markets are going to pump it back into the euro," he said.

DOLLAR REBOUND DUE?

Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting showed officials thought the struggling U.S. recovery might soon need more help and they discussed several ways to provide it, including possible adoption of a price-level target and the possibility of buying more longer-term U.S. government debt.

The market has become very short of dollars on QE expectations, raising the risk of a rebound as it becomes harder for players to sell it down further.

"The dollar index has lost a lot of ground since the last Fed meeting and there is a feeling that the reaction to more QE has probably been overdone," Dudani at RBS added.

Many traders say that if the Fed opts for a much smaller QE programme than the $1 trillion in asset purchases some are talking about, the dollar could benefit from a short squeeze.

But the dollar index was down 0.32 percent at 77.125, not far from a nine-month low of 76.906 set last week. It has shed over 4 percent since the Fed's last meeting on Sept. 21.

The dollar also eased to a record low of 0.9546 Swiss francs while the Australian dollar edged back towards last week's 28-year high of $0.9918.

The dollar was 0.15 percent higher against the yen at 81.90 yen, supported by nervousness that Japanese authorities could intervene the closer it gets to its record low of 79.75 yen. The dollar hit a 15-year low of 81.37 yen on Monday.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said in parliament he could not say whether or not Japan would intervene in the market.

(Additional reporting by Tokyo Forex team)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.