* Mergers and acquisitions lead investment recovery
* Role of emerging economies as source and destination grows
* FDI seen at $1.2 trillion in 2010, 2008 levels in 2012
(Embargoed for release at 1700 GMT on July 22)
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA, July 22 (Reuters) - Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows will steady this year and rise further in 2011-12 as cross-border mergers by multinational companies pick up on growing business confidence, a United Nations agency said.
FDI, on which many developing countries rely to finance their economies, will rise to $1.3-1.5 trillion in 2011 and towards $1.6-2.0 trillion in 2012 from $1.2 trillion this year, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.
FDI inflows fell 37 percent to $1.11 trillion in 2009 after falling 16 percent in 2008 and peaking at $2.1 trillion in 2007, said its annual World Investment Report, released on Thursday.
In the first quarter of this year FDI outflows were about 20 percent higher than a year earlier, it said.
"After this freefall, a timid and uneven recovery appears on its way, thanks to better corporate profits and improved economic and financial conditions."
Prospects for FDI growth are fraught with risks and uncertainties, including the fragility of the recovery, it said.
FDI refers to long-term investments, such as stakes in foreign companies or the construction of a plant for a subsidiary, in contrast to volatile financial investments.
MULTINATIONAL CONFIDENCE
The recovery in FDI will mainly occur through a revival of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) where restructuring and the privatisation of companies rescued in the crisis will offer opportunities, it said.
Multinational companies' willingness to expand abroad looks more robust for 2011 and 2012 than in 2010, with business confidence benefiting from improved economic conditions, corporate profits and stock market valuations seen this year.
The report documents the growing weight of the emerging economies as both sources and destinations for FDI.
China and Russia were the sixth and seventh biggest sources of FDI in 2009, with $48 billion and $46 billion in investments, up from ninth and eighth positions respectively, in 2008.
China and other Asian emerging states are growing sources of FDI in African and other less developed countries, where FDI remains a major source of overall investment in the economy.
While the United States remains the biggest destination of FDI, China edged up to second place in 2009 from third in 2008.
The recent retreat in investment in manufacturing against that of services -- driven by the need for labour-intensive projects -- and the primary sector including mining and energy -- benefiting from rising commodity prices -- is unlikely to be reversed, UNCTAD said.
In cross-border M&A, manufacturing fell 77 percent in value in 2009, while the primary and services sectors contracted by 47 percent and 57 percent respectively, although the latter included a drop of 87 percent in M&A in financial services.
The number of cross-border M&A deals fell by 34 percent in 2009, or 65 percent in value, while greenfield investments in new plant by multinational companies declined only 15 percent.
M&A seems to be rebounding more quickly this year than greenfield investment.
The internationalisation of production continues to grow, with the value added by foreign affiliates of multinational firms shrinking less sharply in the past two years than the overall economy. That took multinationals' share of the world economy to a record 11 percent, employing 80 million people.
Foreign direct investment by private equity funds fell by 65 percent in 2009, but flows from sovereign wealth funds increased by 15 percent, UNCTAD said.
Efforts to encourage investment inflows while regulating them more thoroughly in the wake of the crisis are posing challenges to governments. The proportion of more restrictive investment policy measures rose to 30 percent in 2009, its highest level since UNCTAD started monitoring the trend in 1992. (For report documents go to http://www.unctad.org/wir ) (Editing by Stephanie Nebehay)