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FOREX-Euro slips from 7-week high, stress tests eyed

Published 07/07/2010, 04:30 AM
Updated 07/07/2010, 04:32 AM

* Euro takes breather after rally, resistance near $1.2675

* Ichimoku chart suggests possible rise to $1.28 near term

* Aussie edges lower after Tuesday's 1.5 percent jump

(Adds quotes, details, prices, changes dateline previous TOKYO)

By Lin Noueihed

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - The euro slipped off a seven week high on Wednesday on renewed concerns about the euro zone banking system and the strength of global economic recovery.

A European committee of bank supervisors is to outline on Wednesday the methodology of a stress test on about 100 banks in the euro zone and other countries, sources told Reuters.

Analysts said the euro gained support after a solid Spanish syndicated debt sale on Tuesday eased fears over euro zone debt but markets would remain cautious until the bank stress test results are released later this month.

This means some market players are refraining from taking long positions in the euro.

"There's still an awful lot of uncertainty in Europe and the stress tests are the next big event... If growth concerns return then Europe will be worse hit than the U.S.," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at BTM-UFJ.

"We're not forecasting a double dip recession but the uncertainty over growth will persist in the next six months and if that happens defensive currencies like the dollar will still do well at the expense of euro."

The euro eased 0.4 percent to $1.2571 at 0833 GMT. It had risen to $1.2663 on trading platform EBS on Tuesday, the highest in about seven weeks.

However, some traders said it could rise further as euro zone debt fears recede and worries about the U.S. recovery hit the dollar.

It finished U.S. trading above resistance at the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud -- a signal that its entrenched downtrend may be over.

The euro in mid-December slid beneath the cloud on the Ichimoku chart, the Japanese chart pattern that is closely followed across markets, and had mostly traded below it since then. But its rise back into the cloud suggests that it has entered a consolidation phase. "The euro is in a retracement phase in the wake of its drop to below $1.2 and could rise back towards the top of the cloud," said Tokichi Ito, deputy general manager for Trust & Custody Services Bank's forex team.

DOLLAR SELLING

The dollar fell 0.4 percent at 87.15 yen, not far from a seven-month low of 86.96 yen hit on EBS last week.

The greenback lost ground on Tuesday after a lacklustre report on the U.S. service sector added to other recent data suggesting consumer spending, housing and factory activity in the world's largest economy was moderating.

Equities markets also gave up Tuesday's gains, as uncertainty over growth hit demand for risk.

The dollar index edged up 0.2 percent to 84.269, staying near a two-month low of 83.825 hit this week.

Traders said the world's other major central banks may also need to ease policies further in the event of a U.S. double-dip and that the implications for currencies were far from clear.

"The story in the U.S. is that the Federal Reserve may return to quantitative easing. I would not rule it out but they won't do it unless markets are very stressed," Halpenny said.

The Australian dollar, which has had a strong correlation with Asian shares and the market's risk appetite in general, dipped 0.5 percent to $0.8480, giving back some of its 1.5 percent climb the previous day, as Asian share prices fell.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Tamawa Desai in London; Editing by xxx)

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