Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

UK hung parliament prospects cast pall over sterling

Published 03/03/2010, 09:16 AM
Updated 03/03/2010, 09:28 AM

* Hung parliament prospects to weigh on sterling

* Economists slash 2010 forecasts for GBP gains vs USD

* Forecasts for sterling/euro largely unchanged from Feb

By Andy Bruce

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Prospects for a hung parliament that would wreck any positive sentiment towards sterling forced economists in the latest monthly Reuters foreign exchange poll to slash their forecasts for the pound against the dollar.

Median predictions from the monthly poll of 65 analysts taken this week showed the pound rising to $1.51 in one month, a far cry from the $1.60 predicted in last month's poll in which no economist foresaw the pound slipping under $1.53.

On Monday the pound hit a 10-month low of $1.4781 after opinion polls predicted no clear winner would result from a general election to be held by June, a scenario that would leave the next government without a strong mandate to cut Britain's vast budget deficit.

Economists saw sterling faring better against the euro in 2010.

The poll forecast cable at $1.55 in six months, rising to $1.59 in 12 months. This compares to six- and 12-month predictions of $1.62 and $1.64 from February's poll.

"With political uncertainty growing over an ever narrowing margin between the two political parties adding to an already fragile economy, GBP is likely to be shunned by investors that seek economies with more clarity," said Vimal Popat at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Sterling volatility against the dollar was seen falling to 7.6 percent this month from an actual 8.6 percent in February.

The pound's weakness has become a key election issue.

The opposition Conservatives, whose once-decisive lead over the ruling Labour Party has shrunk to a few points, on Tuesday said a Labour victory would tip sterling into a "downward spiral". Labour accused them of talking the pound down for political gain.

DIVERGENCE

As in last month's poll, respondents saw the UK currency gaining in 2010 against the euro, which been hammered by the Greek debt crisis and growing signs of a stalling recovery.

Median forecasts showed the euro trading at 89 pence in three months, versus the 88 pence forecast in February's poll.

They predicted a level of 87 pence in six months and 86 pence in 12, compared to 87 pence and 85 pence in last month's poll.

Also growing divergences between how ultra-loose monetary policy cycles in the U.S., euro zone and Britain are dismantled will give more reasons to differentiate between the currencies.

The Bank of England looks certain to hold interest rates at their record low of 0.5 percent at its meeting on Thursday, and is not expected to raise interest rates until the last quarter of 2010.

"With the U.S. implementing initial steps towards policy normalisation, most recently by raising the discount rate, we expect currency differentiation to remain a major theme," said Meng Jiao at BofAML.

"We would look for the 'liquidity-driven' sterling to underperform against the USD but outperform against the euro."

The 16-nation euro zone economy is expected to grow at a faster pace of 1.3 percent this year compared to 1.1 percent forecast for the UK.

But PMI surveys on Wednesday showed Britain's services sector activity, which accounts for around four-fifths of the country's output, hit a three-year high in February, whereas euro zone services growthh slowed slightly. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit, editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.