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INTERVIEW-Fitch says Greek EU deal positive but not decisive

Published 04/12/2010, 07:16 AM
Updated 04/12/2010, 07:24 AM

* Fitch says deal encouraging but questions still remain

* Greece's fiscal performance for next two years in focus

* BBB- rating appropriate for now

By Ingrid Melander

ATHENS, April 12 (Reuters) - The euro zone's rescue package for Greece is positive but not decisive, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.

Fitch senior analyst Chris Pryce said Greece's government will grab the euro zone rescue line agreed on Sunday if it cannot raise money on the market at around the 5 percent interest rate offered in the 30 billion euro deal.

"It is clearly encouraging for the Greek government but it still leaves some questions unanswered," Pryce told Reuters.

"Thirty billion should see them through the end of the year, but I would need more information on next year and the year after because this is the focus of our worries."

Greece has yet to ask to tap the package, and officials have long said the fleshing out of its details should suffice to calm markets after its borrowing costs spiked to more than double those of euro zone benchmark Germany last month.

Fitch downgraded Greece two notches to BBB-minus, the lowest rung of investment grade, on Friday, and set a negative outlook because of worsening prospects for the contracting economy and higher debt maintenance costs that would hit the budget gap.

Greek officials have said they would watch markets in the coming days to assess whether or not they would activate the deal, which includes extra help from the International Monetary Fund.

On Monday, yield spreads -- the premium investors demand to buy Greek rather than euro zone benchmark German government debt -- shot lower after EU officials fleshed out the deal's details.

The spread of the Greek 10-year government benchmark dropped by about 60 basis points to 334 basis points on Monday.

Many analysts say the correction will offer only temporary respite due to doubts over Athens' long-term solvency, and Pryce said the market's reaction would be crucial.

"I would expect the Greek government to use the aid package if it cannot raise the money on the market at around the rate of 5 percent," he said.

Pryce said Fitch's BBB- rating for Greece was appropriate for now and Friday's downgrade had assumed an aid package would be made available.

The main focus would remain on Greece carrying out its pledge to slash its public finance deficit by a third to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year and deal with a 300 billion euro debt pile equal to 125 percent of annual output.

"The rating is appropriate for what we know about Greece in the short- and medium-term context at this stage," Pryce said. "As everybody, we will be monitoring markets but also Greece's fiscal package and measures for the next year or two." (Writing by Michael Winfrey; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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