By Tim Hepher
PARIS (Reuters) -Airbus deliveries fell 9% in September to 50 jets compared with the same month last year, the European planemaker said on Wednesday, rekindling a debate over the strength of its industrial goals as suppliers struggle to keep up with demand.
The deliveries figure, which confirms a recent Reuters report, brings the total so far this year to 497 jetliners, up 2% from 488 at the nine-month stage a year earlier.
Airbus is targeting 770 deliveries for the full year after reducing its goal from 800 jets in July, citing shortages of engines and other parts as the aerospace industry's supply chain struggles to recover from the pandemic.
Reuters, quoting industry sources, reported on Friday that Airbus had delivered 50 jets in September, leaving it facing a sprint towards the finish line in the busy fourth quarter.
Airbus has said it is on track to meet its annual target of "around" 770 jets.
The figures suggest that Airbus would have to deliver 273 aircraft in the fourth quarter to meet its headline target figure, up 11% from the same quarter last year.
Analysts disagreed whether the planemaker would once again recover lost momentum in the fourth quarter, a period during which it traditionally speeds up but has occasionally stumbled.
Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa said Airbus' 2024 guidance and later deliveries "increasingly look a stretch". He also raised concerns about the underlying production of single-aisle planes which had failed to make visible progress towards a goal of 75 a month by 2027, recently pushed back from 2026.
Industry sources and analysts estimate current production of the single-aisle A320neo family at around 50 per month.
"The A320 rate ramp is simply not coming through," Tusa said in a note.
Bernstein analysts said they now saw risks to Airbus reaching its goal of 770 deliveries and cut their forecast to 750, echoing a similar prediction from Cirium Ascend. They also cut their forecast for deliveries in 2025 to 820 jets from 880.
Jefferies, however, said Airbus should be able to reach its 2024 target, albeit with a risk of coming in as low as 760.
"The 2024 guidance, while challenging, is still within reach," analyst Chloe Lemarie said.
Jet deliveries drive revenue and play a key role alongside a new programme of cost cuts in shaping operating earnings, which Airbus will report for the third quarter on Oct 30.
Monthly delivery data was overshadowed by a profit warning from a key supplier.
Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:BA) supplier Senior said on Tuesday it was cutting headcount in response to challenges in commercial aerospace manufacturing, sending its shares tumbling.
Senior said it was resorting to both furloughs and job cuts in response to an ongoing strike at Boeing's commercial aircraft operations and supply chain issues facing Airbus.
Airbus meanwhile said it had won 235 new orders in September, including demand from an undisclosed customer for 75 narrowbody jets and 10 wide-body A350s.
So far this year, the world's largest planemaker has won orders for a total of 667 jets, or 648 after cancellations.
Airbus does not publish a target for orders, but industry sources said it is informally aiming for about 1,100 net orders.