(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May has set out her exit date, firing the starting gun on the leadership race to replace her. Pro-Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson is the favorite and he’s made clear he’d be prepared to rip the U.K. out of the bloc without a deal.
But getting to no-deal isn’t that simple. Here’s what you need to know:
1. The Tories who choose next PM want no-deal
The next prime minister is going to be chosen by the 120,000 members of the Conservative Party. Members of Parliament whittle down the candidates to a final two and that shortlist goes to the activists to choose a winner. Two-thirds of those members want a no-deal Brexit, according to a recent poll by YouGov.
2. Parliament opposes no-deal
There’s a majority in Parliament against no-deal (the split was 160 vs 400 in a vote on March 27). But there’s not a clear mechanism to prevent it happening, according to the Institute for Government. A determined leader could find a way to bring about no-deal, though it might be constitutionally questionable and lawmakers could well find a way to prevent it.
3. No-deal could prompt a general election
One way Parliament could stop a no-deal is with a vote of no-confidence in the government. Remember the Conservatives don’t have a majority and so it wouldn’t take many Conservative MPs to take a stance to bring down the government. A Brexiteer hardliner as prime minister would be a divisive leader of the party -- making rebellions more likely.
4. A run at no-deal could end up with a second referendum
A leader set on a messy exit who didn’t want to run the risk of holding a general election could call a referendum instead. What would the question be? If May’s deal is dead and her successor doesn’t come up with a new one, then the question put to the people could be no-deal or remain.
5. No-deal probably isn’t sustainable
The European Union says that in a no-deal scenario it wouldn’t cut a trade deal with the U.K. until the bits that have proved most controversial -- the Irish border and the divorce bill -- are settled. That suggests that if the U.K. is unwilling to compromise on the contentious issue of the Irish border, the country would have to endure the shock of functioning without a trade deal with its biggest neighbor. Factories would close, jobs would be lost and consumers walloped. The EU expects the U.K. would soon come crawling back to the negotiating table.