The global head of fixed income research at HSBC discussed whether bond yields are peaking in a note on Monday, stating that we are watching the formation of a third peak for yields in the last 18 months.
Analysts at HSBC told investors that a triple top has formed, although the two previous occasions did not prove to be definitive buying opportunities, so there is "quite some trepidation around the current rise in bond yields (fall in prices)."
It is said that in technical analysis, to qualify as a signal that there might be a change in market direction, the triple top should occur following a period when there was an uptrend.
"The underlying assumption is that the yield peaks form a level of resistance against higher yields and that if the yield were to fall below previous lows in the pattern, the triple top would be complete," explained analysts at HSBC.
"The nominal yield (red line) has not quite formed the third peak, but if the trend of recent weeks continues, this might be a triple top in the making," they added.
"We see that the first peak was just before the regional bank stress in March 2023, and the second in mid-October 2023, coinciding with strong real economy data and a background narrative of a demand-supply mismatch in the Treasury market."