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Gold futures - Weekly outlook: June 18 - 22

Published 06/17/2012, 06:11 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures ended Friday’s session higher for the sixth consecutive day, as investors positioned themselves in the precious metal ahead of Sunday’s elections in Greece, which could determine if the country remains in the euro zone.  

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery settled at USD1,628.15 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday.

Earlier in the day, prices hit USD1,634.35 a troy ounce, the highest since June 6. On the week, gold futures advanced 1.55%.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,559.35 a troy ounce, the low from June 8 and near-term resistance at USD1,642.15, the high from June 6.

Market sentiment over the past week was dominated by growing concerns over rising borrowing costs in Spain and Italy, as well as jitters ahead of weekend elections in Greece.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds climbed to a euro-era high on Thursday, after ratings agency Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating by three notches to just above junk status, citing its rising debt burden and weakening economy.  

Spanish 10-year bond yields eased back to settle at 6.87% on Friday, but remained close to the critical 7% threshold which prompted bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The spike in borrowing costs came in spite of efforts to insulate Madrid from the effects of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis by agreeing on a EUR100 billion aid package for Spanish banks.

Spain became the fourth euro zone nation to seek a rescue last week. Some investors fear it is only a matter of time before Italy becomes the next country to ask for help.

Concerns that Italy may be the next euro zone country to require a bailout intensified on Thursday after the country sold the maximum targeted amount of EUR4.5 billion of government bonds, but the country’s three-year borrowing costs jumped to the highest level since December.

Investors were also focused on the outcome of Sunday’s closely watched general election in Greece, where pro and anti-bailout parties are neck-and-neck in the polls.

The precious metal found further support from expectations that world central banks would implement measures to calm market turmoil in the event of a victory for anti-bailout parties in the Greek elections.

On Friday, the European Central Bank said it would continue to supply liquidity to banks as necessary, one day after the Bank of England announced an emergency liquidity package to support the U.K. banking system.

Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce fresh stimulus measures following its meeting next week after a recent string of weak economic data lent further support.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a six-month low in June, fuelling concerns that economic growth is faltering.

Separate reports showed that an index of manufacturing activity in New York dropped sharply in June, while U.S. manufacturing output fell in May for the second time in three months.

The weak data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a third round of easing to shore up economic growth. Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.

The renewed easing hopes weighed on the U.S. dollar. The dollar index settled the week down 0.57% at 81.80, the lowest since May 22.

Gold investors will be closely watching U.S. data in the second quarter for clues as to the likelihood of a fresh round of monetary easing, which could potentially hurt the dollar and support gold.

Gold gained as much as 15% earlier this year to hit USD1,790 an ounce after the Fed said in January it would keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014 and indicated that it could introduce a fresh round of asset-purchases.

However, prices have lost almost 9% since late February, amid growing concerns the European debt crisis has been escalating, which has fueled demand for the yellow metal's hedge, the greenback.

From a technical standpoint, market analysts said the yellow metal must break above its one-month high in the USD1,640-area to rise further. Bullion rose toward that level several times recently but failed in each attempt.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for July delivery settled at USD28.63 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.96% on the week.

Meanwhile, copper for July delivery rose 1.4% over the week to settle at a six-day high of USD3.415 a pound. Prices rallied 1.8% on Friday, lifted by expectations for global economic stimulus ahead of this weekend's Greek elections.

In the week ahead, investor sentiment is likely to be decided by the outcome of Sunday’s elections in Greece, while a G-20 summit due to start Monday in Mexico may produce fresh measures to combat the crisis in Europe.

Meanwhile, gold traders will be closely watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, for clues as to the likelihood of a fresh round of monetary easing.

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