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TS Lombard analysts outline what's at stake in Trump-Biden debate

Published 06/27/2024, 07:16 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Democratic President Joe Biden will square off against Republican challenger Donald Trump in a televised debate on CNN on Thursday, in the first head-to-head encounter between the two candidates prior to the November election.

Age is expected to be a central theme in the debate between Biden, the incumbent U.S. President, and his predecessor Trump. 

Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are the two oldest major-party contenders to ever seek the U.S. presidency. Trump has accused Biden of being physically and mentally unfit for office, while Biden has called Trump "unhinged" in the run-up to the event.

With national opinion polls largely split between the two, the debate could serve as a vehicle for either candidate to prove their fitness to a cohort of undecided voters that could influence the outcome of the election.

Analysts at TS Lombard said that while the debate will likely bring "few voter surprises," it has the potential to "recast if not shake up a dead-heat race."

"For Biden and Trump, [...] proving their mental acuity in a 90-minute debate without props or notes will outrank all else," the analysts said in a note to clients.

"If a shaky Biden underperforms his rival, pressure from big Democratic donors to ditch his candidacy will surge, especially with Biden now trailing on fundraising for the second straight month. If Trump goes off the rails, Republicans may wince but the GOP ticket won’t change. Rather the onus will shift to Trump’s as yet-unannounced [Vice President] pick to steady his campaign."

They added that, historically, presidential debates do not matter much in deciding the outcome of elections. However, "in a close race everything counts," the analysts said.

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