Former President Trump survived an assassination attempt over the weekend, an event that BTIG analysts believe strikes at the core of American democracy and could significantly alter the electoral landscape.
"At the highest level, the events over the weekend bolster our belief that Trump should be viewed as the favorite at this juncture, especially as it could expand the already gaping enthusiasm gap and reinforce our view that President Biden is likely to survive recent calls to step aside as the nation’s collective attention shifts."
BTIG asserts that Trump remains the favorite to win the election, highlighting his relative strength on key issues like immigration and inflation in the critical swing states.
They also note that Trump was already expected to see a polling bump from the GOP convention, but this bump could be larger due to the weekend’s events. Analysts draw a parallel to President Reagan, who saw an immediate 7-point increase in approval ratings after surviving an assassination attempt in March 1981.
Any immediate bump in Trump's approval rating from this event could dissipate over time, "but we believe Trump’s defiance following the attack could be the defining image of this election cycle and its impact on both enthusiasm and broader sentiment could prove lasting,” analysts noted.
A recent NBC poll found that only 33% of Democrats and Lean Democrats are satisfied with Biden as their nominee, compared to 54% who were satisfied with Hillary Clinton at the same point in the 2016 cycle. Meanwhile, 71% of Republicans and Republican Lean respondents expressed satisfaction with Trump as their nominee.
Still, BTIG's team retains its view that Biden is likely to secure the Democratic presidential nomination in early August, a conviction that has increased following the weekend's events, as the shift in national attention is expected to reduce the frequency of calls for him to step aside.