Despite ongoing doubts about President Biden's candidacy, he remains steadfast in his decision to stay in the race.
Biden on Monday sent a determined letter to Congressional Democrats, stating he remains “firmly committed to staying in this race.”
According to Evercore ISI analysts, the letter was clearly intended to preempt the many closed-door discussions expected on Capitol Hill this week as the House and Senate reconvene.
The analysts pointed out three reasons why the odds of Biden staying in the race are increasing and stressed this is a "critical week" for the presidential race. Firstly, the decision ultimately rests with Biden. Secondly, changing his mind would require a strong and coordinated effort from Democratic lawmakers, many of whom may be reluctant to provoke an intra-party conflict so close to the election. Thirdly, if Biden can navigate this week, attention may shift back to the Republicans, particularly with the RNC starting on July 15, where Trump is expected to announce his VP.
However, the situation remains fluid, Evercore notes, with several factors still under close watch.
While more members of Congress have called for Biden to exit the race, these voices are not from vulnerable members in key states or districts, thus diminishing their influence in the process.
“There will be critical in-person meetings among lawmakers over the next couple of days,” Evercore wrote.
“It’s not clear that the House and Senate leaders want to take this issue to the President, but they’ll be taking the pulse of their membership to determine the course forward,” it added.
According to analysts, the key members to watch are Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer. Furthermore, former senior leaders Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn are expected to carry significant influence with President Biden.
Analysts emphasize that some members' opinions matter more, particularly those from swing districts and key Senate races in states like Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. While some senior lawmakers, such as Congressman Nadler, have urged Biden to withdraw, the impact will be greater if swing state members join in, especially if they see their polling advantage waning.
Polls are also a major factor, with upcoming swing state polls expected to provide more clarity on voter sentiment.
Additionally, Biden's ability to shift the conversation could be vital. This week, the focus remains on him, but the NATO summit and the upcoming Republican convention might divert attention.
“If Biden can survive this week and ride out the attention, the changing conversation works in his favor going forward,” Evercore analysts concluded.