U.S. Vice President and Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a former teacher and Army National Guard veteran, as her running mate.
According to Raymond James strategists, Harris’s choice of Walz, who is seen as a populist and progressive, appears to have revitalized the Democratic base and improved polling outcomes in key battleground states.
To account for the recent developments, including Walz’s inclusion in the Democratic ticket, the strategists have adjusted the odds of a Trump victory down from 60% to 55%, while increasing Harris’s odds to 45%.
They attribute this shift to Harris's ability to reinvigorate the Democratic base, improve polling numbers in crucial states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and potentially North Carolina, and secure robust fundraising.
“Harris has re-energized Democrats and united the base heading into the last stretch of the election,” strategists said in a note.
The outlook for House control has also shifted, with the odds of Democratic control rising from 50% to 55%. If Trump were to win, the likelihood of a Republican House drops to 75%, down from 80%.
In contrast, if Harris wins, the odds of a Democratic House increase to 95%. The strategists note that Harris’s candidacy may boost turnout in certain states, particularly in toss-up GOP-held districts in California and New York, potentially jeopardizing Republican control of the House.
On the Senate side, the odds of GOP control remain at 75%. However, if Trump wins, the strategists now see a 100% likelihood of a Republican Senate, up from 95%. If Harris secures a victory, there is a 55% chance of a Democratic Senate.
“The maintaining of these odds despite the shift in the presidential race is really a result of the current Senate electoral landscape and the Vice President breaking a tie in a 50-50 senate,” strategists noted.
Meanwhile, the probability of a GOP sweep has been lowered from 50% to 40%, reflecting changes in presidential odds and the adjusted likelihood of Democratic control of the House.
The odds of a GOP President with a split Congress have increased from 10% to 15%, while the odds of a Democratic sweep remain steady at 20%. The estimates of a Democratic President with a split Congress have risen from 20% to 25%.
“If Harris wins, the most likely scenario is Republicans controlling at least one of the two houses of Congress,” strategists concluded.