Investing.com - Uncertainty over whether President Joe Biden will stand for reelection is growing after his shaky debate performance, particularly after the release of a poll suggesting fellow Democrats think he can't beat his rival Donald Trump.
Biden has acknowledged his performance during last Thursday's presidential debate wasn't his best, and has sought to explain this weakness by suggesting he was tired after two overseas trips earlier in June.
However, he is facing mounting questions about his 2024 reelection bid, with the confidence of fellow Democrats seemingly severely shaken as prediction market probabilities saw a meaningful shift in favor of former U.S. President Donald Trump and a Republican victory following the debate.
“President Biden has the ultimate firewall: As the elected Democratic nominee, only he can remove himself from the ballot at this point in the cycle,” said analysts at Strategas, in a note dated July 3.
“Yet, the firewall is crumbling. Fierce defenders of the president, like Nancy Pelosi and James Clyburn, both expressed doubts yesterday. A story hit last night about President Obama’s concerns.”
Perhaps even more telling, Democrats’ internal polling shows Trump winning 358 electoral votes and putting the House in jeopardy, Strategas said.
The poll showed Biden losing in every one of the Magnificent 7 Swing States, some by double-digits, as well as Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.
The research house added that these concerns can be easily squashed with Biden doing a press conference and proving everyone wrong. However, that is not what is happening. Instead, a taped interview with George Stephanopoulos (at ABC) is the preferred route, excerpts of which will be aired on Friday.
“This is probably not enough, but our guess is that Biden does not step down until this interview runs,” Strategas added.
Democrats now appear to believe their chances of winning are greater without Biden than with him.
But how this happens is still unanswered, the research house said. Is it during the convention? Or after, through the Democratic National Committee?
Replacing a candidate for president after the primary raises serious legal issues about ballot access in swing states and fundraising, and Vice President Kamala Harris looks the best legal shot at preserving the ballot access and fundraising cash.
Removing or bypassing the sitting vice president also threatens division within the party.
“Still, dictating who will be the nominee is also not a winning strategy. No option here is a good one,” Strategas concluded.