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UPDATE 2-DSV outlook disappoints after Q3 profit triples

Published 10/29/2010, 06:05 AM

* Q3 pretax up threefold to 461 million DKK vs 468 million in poll

* Nudges up 2010 revenue and EBITA guidance

* CEO says expects growth to slow, stabilise

* Shares down 3.56 percent, underperforming Copenhagen bourse

(Adds details, quotes; updates share price)

By Mette Fraende and Teis Jensen

COPENHAGEN, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Danish freight forwarder DSV disappointed investors with a smaller-than-expected upgrade to its 2010 outlook after reporting more than threefold rise in third quarter-pretax profit due boosted by its Air & Sea division.

DSV's shares initially tumbled more than 7 percent to a five-week low but had trimmed losses to 3.56 percent at 108.40 Danish crowns by 0954 GMT, underperforming a 1.15 percent fall in the Copenhagen bourse's blue chip index.

"The upgrade is too small," said Amagerbanken head of equity sales Soren Sorensen. "I think some analysts will have to downgrade their expectations of the company this year."

DSV said the upgrade in outlook for 2010 was due to rising activity in the first nine months of the year.

The company said its results were helped by growth in its Air & Sea division, which reported a 50 percent rise in third-quarter revenue, and cost control.

The company revised its revenue guidance upwards to between 42 billion to 43 billion Danish crowns ($7.82 billion) from an earlier expected 41 billion to 43 billion crowns and its forecast for earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation (EBITA) to between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion crowns from

Chief Executive Jens Bjorn Andersen said DSV expected growth to slow down but stabilise.

"We expect the development we have seen in the first three quarters of the year to continue," Andersen told Reuters. 2.0 billion to 2.2 billion crowns.

He said he saw global trade developing favourably and DSV was experiencing high growth primarily in the Far East but also in countries like Sweden and Germany.

NO DOUBLE-DIP

Last week, Swiss-listed peer Kuehne & Nagel said it expected a strong finish to the year and raised its airfreight volumes forecast, in a sign that the world trade recovery is set to continue.

Andersen said he did not believe the world would see a double-dip recession.

"And even if we did see a double-dip, we feel we would be well positioned to face it," he said.

Analysts said the group seemed to have managed to turn around its Road division business in countries that had been challenging for it.

"Fundamentally, all countries (in the Road division) delivered profits in the third quarter, which shows a successful turnaround of problematic countries such as Germany, France and Spain," said ING analyst, Axel Funhoff.

DSV said the Road division expected a small profit in those three countries. A profit in Germany would be the first in six years for DSV.

The group said it was adjusting its strategy, and would focus on organic growth and returning capital to shareholders through share buy-backs and dividends.

The change of strategy would also mean that large acquisitions were now unlikely.

DSV said it had reduced debt to a desired level, enabling it to launch a share buyback of up to 600 million crowns.

Pretax profit in the third quarter rose 207 percent to 461 million Danish crowns in the three months to the end of September, missing a mean estimate of 489 million crowns in a Reuters poll of analysts. ($1=5.373 Danish Crown) (Reporting by Mette Fraende, additional reporting by Copenhagen newsroom; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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