Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Euro holds steady before key U.S. employment report

Published 02/04/2011, 07:32 AM
Updated 02/04/2011, 07:36 AM

* Euro flat after sharp fall, dlr consolidates ahead of NFP

* Euro support seen at $1.3570-$1.3535

* Retreat from ECB rate hike prospect could undermine euro

(Adds detail, updates prices)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The euro steadied on Friday, having slid after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet cooled expectations for a near-term hike in interest rates, while the dollar consolidated ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

Traders said whether the dollar's reprieve from a recent sell-off and the euro's retreat from a 12-week high will continue hinges on U.S. job data for January due at 1330 GMT.

Economists polled by Reuters see the U.S. economy adding 145,000 jobs in January, increasing for the fourth straight month, although the jobless rate is also likely to rise.

"Our U.S. economics team expects a more positive outcome, forecasting 160,000 jobs. Given such a number, we look for a continuation in yesterday's dollar relief rally, with the euro eyeing support at $1.3550," said Adam Myers, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole.

The euro traded flat at $1.3627, after falling 1.2 percent the previous day and moving away from a 12-week peak of $1.3862 set on Wednesday. On the charts, the euro was holding around support from an Ichimoku cloud top at $1.3623.

More support lies at $1.3570, this week's low, and $1.3535, which was resistance for the currency last month before a break there turned it into support. A breach of those rates would open the door for a slide below $1.35.

Trichet, speaking after the ECB's decision to keep rates at a record low 1 percent on Thursday, said inflation expectations remained firmly anchored and inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained.

Trichet's comments prompted euro zone interest rate futures to pare expectations of a rate increase by August to around 90 percent after having fully priced one in beforehand.

The market will be watching an EU summit later on Friday, although few traders expect anything startling to emerge as measures to reinforce a bailout scheme for struggling member states are not expected to be taken until March.

READJUSTMENTS AHEAD OF U.S. JOBS

The dollar is drawing support from a recent rise in U.S. bond yields -- and expectations of a strong jobs number added to that trend. The two-year Treasury note yield, sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations, has risen about 17 basis points this week.

"The U.S. economy is on a sugar high, helped by all the stimulus, and we expect U.S. yields to continue creeping higher," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS Global Banking. "We expect euro/dollar to ease to $1.25 by the end of the first half of the year."

But the euro and other currencies seen as higher risk could also benefit from the rise in risk appetite that hopes of stronger U.S. growth bring, especially if the data fails to change the perception that the Federal Reserve is in no real hurry to raise rates.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday that despite improved data the U.S. economy needs help from the central bank.

The dollar index was flat at 77.774, having rebounded sharply on Thursday and was off a 12-week low of 76.881 hit earlier this week.

The dollar was up slightly at 81.64 yen, drawing little help from the rise in U.S. yields. Traders cite large stops under 81.00 yen.

The Aussie dollar was up 0.3 percent at $1.0180, having jumped to a one-month high of $1.0196 after the Reserve Bank of Australia stayed upbeat on the economic outlook and played down the impact of recent floods. Traders said an option barrier at $1.0200 was helping to cap further Aussie gains.

The Canadian dollar rose to a session high against the U.S. dollar of C$0.9845 after Canada added 69,200 more jobs in January, far more than most forecasts, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up from 7.6 percent to 7.8 percent.

(Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong, editing by Patrick Graham/Toby Chopra)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.