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"Much uncertainty" surrounds US election as November vote approaches - Citi

Published 10/08/2024, 04:59 AM
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Investing.com -- Uncertainty surrounds the November US presidential election, with both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump all but even in key swing states, according to analysts at Citi.

With only weeks to go until the crucial ballot, national polling suggests that Harris holds a narrow two to three-percentage point lead over Trump, but the analysts said the race remains a toss-up in battleground states that could prove to be hugely influential in the all-important Electoral College.

They added that the impact of a recent Category 4 hurricane, dubbed Helene, on two of these critical states -- Georgia and North Carolina -- has "still yet to be determined." Helene flooded towns, caused power outages, and closed roads in the states. At least 230 people were killed by the storm, the Associated Press reported.

Following natural disasters in the past, state legislators have pushed back voter registration deadlines, designated more emergency polling locations and extended Election Day deadlines for mail-in ballots.

North Carolina's state legislature is due to meet on Wednesday to discuss similar measures. Voter registration is due to end in the state on Oct. 11.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said in a social media post that election offices were "spared from substantial, long-term damage."

"Officials have yet to announce extension of voter registration or emergency voting sites in [North Carolina] or [Georgia] and may not do so given rising election security concerns," the Citi analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

They noted that "[b]ecause margins are so tight, if the electorate of either state changes, there could be implications for general election results."

Trump is currently leading polls in both states, albeit within the statistical margin of error. Both the former president and Harris have been campaigning aggressively in these states.

Georgia, in particular, played a central role in current President Joe Biden's victory over then-incumbent Trump in 2020. A razor-thin majority of 49.5% of voters favored Biden in the contest.

Trump, meanwhile, topped Biden in North Carolina with 49.9% of the state-wide vote.

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