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Natural gas futures edge higher with weather, supply data in focus

Published 02/20/2013, 10:48 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas futures edged higher to hit a one-week high during U.S. morning trade on Wednesday, as forecasts for cooler weather in the near-term continued to boost prices ahead of Thursday’s closely-watched inventory data.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March traded at USD3.288 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, up 0.5% on the day.       

Prices rose by as much as 1.2% earlier in the day to hit a session high of USD3.313 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since February 13.

Natural gas futures rallied 3.8% on Tuesday after weather forecast models called for below-normal readings for most of the nation in the coming week.

Forecasts originally called for mostly normal temperatures during the period.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on winter heating demand.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Despite the upward movement, market analysts have warned that any significant gains in the near-term will likely be limited as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in February and March mean less than they do in January.

The heating fuel has lost nearly 10% since rallying to two-month high of USD3.644 per million British thermal units on January 21, after updated weather forecast models pointed to mostly mild temperatures for mid-February.

Natural gas traders now looked ahead to a closely-watched U.S. government report on natural gas supplies on Thursday. Early withdrawal estimates range from 118 billion cubic feet to 154 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 155 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 140 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.527 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 16% above the five-year average for this time of year.

If withdrawals for the rest of winter season match the five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season at 2.076 trillion cubic feet, nearly 20% above normal, but 16% below last year's end-winter record of 2.48 trillion cubic feet.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in March shed 0.6% to trade at USD96.52 a barrel, while heating oil for March delivery dropped 0.25% to trade at USD3.173 per gallon.

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