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GRAINS-Corn near record high, supply woes persist

Published 04/05/2011, 07:41 AM
Updated 04/05/2011, 07:44 AM
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* U.S. corn trims gains after China's rate hike

* Traders eye further cut in U.S. corn supply estimate

* Corn seen overbought, may spur correction-analyst

* European wheat touches 5-week high

(Adds European markets, new comments, updates prices)

By Manolo Serapio Jr and Svetlana Kovalyova

SYDNEY/MILAN, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures pared earlier gains after China's rate hike but remained near record highs on Tuesday, as worries over tight supplies in top exporter the United States persisted and pushed European wheat higher.

Chicago corn has gained about 15 percent since Thursday after a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed U.S. stockpiles at surprisingly low levels, prompting funds to plough billions into a market driven by strong demand from ethanol producers and Chinese importers, and by fierce competition for acres.

Corn for May delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.59 percent to $7.56 bushel at 1103 GMT, off a high of $7.62-3/4 after China's central bank said it would raise interest rates in a bid to control inflation.

"The immediate impact of the rate hike has seen corn drop into negative territory, but the market is strong and buyers will only take advantage of potential further price decreases during today's session," said Gunter Tschiderer, fund manager at BNP Paribas' Theam Commodities.

"I'm expecting corn (July) to go to $8.00 in the next couple of sessions. The momentum is clearly supportive after acreage and stock reports," he said.

The corn contract peaked at $7.65 on Monday, matching the record high last reached in June 2008.

Some analysts suggested the rally, spurred by dwindling stockpiles, may have been too fast too soon.

"We are concerned that corn was overbought at these levels, which may lead to technical corrections," said Ker Chung Yang, analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Investors may need to be on guard for breaks in crop prices, as investors with long positions book profits."

Corn's recent surge has taken it to near parity with wheat, suggesting wheat demand could surge as well if corn supplies really tighten.

The USDA has already forecast that corn inventories will hit their lowest level in 15 years at the end of the current season.

But data last week showing unexpectedly low supplies as of March 1, may force USDA to make a further significant downgrade of end-season stock estimates when it updates its monthly report on Friday, adding volatility to the market.

Euronext milling wheat futures rose as much as 4 percent in early trade on Tuesday before trimming gains as poor crop weather in the U.S. Plains continued to make operators nervous.

May milling wheat on Euronext was up 6.75 euros or 2.74 percent at 252.75 euros a tonne by 1103 GMT, after rising to a five-week high of 256.00 euros.

New-crop November on Euronext was up 3.75 euros or 1.73 percent at 221.00 euros.

EYES ON WEATHER

"There's enough bullish news in the market to warrant further gains in corn prices," said Luke Mathews, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, citing "catastrophically tight U.S. corn supplies and worries around the potential weather in the Northern Hemisphere for the new crop" which may hit yields.

The latest weather forecasts show rains across parts of the U.S. Midwest could delay planting that is due to begin within days. If rain delays corn planting too long, farmers may be swayed to grow soybeans instead.

"But with the strong performance in corn prices, one would assume that there's probably more acres that can be assigned to corn provided that the weather is kind enough to allow planting," said Adam Davis, senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital in Melbourne.

Commodity funds were net buyers of an estimated 25,000 contracts of CBOT corn futures on Monday. They sold 8,000 soybean contracts and bought 8,000 wheat contracts.

Chicago May wheat edged up 0.44 percent to $7.93-1/2 a bushel, trimming gains after rising to a one-month top of $7.98 earlier. Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.65 percent to $13.75 per bushel.

"US HRW winter crop ratings were pretty ugly, reflecting recent dry, windy conditions, with little relief on the radar," FCStone Europe said in a note.

"Inter and intra market spreads will be volatile as outlooks for wheat grades, old-crop/new-crop and grains vs oilseeds markets differ," it said.

* Prices as of 1102 GMT Product Last Change Percent Move End 2009 Ytd Percent Paris wheat 252.75 6.75 +2.74 131.25 92.57 London wheat 205.50 1.75 +0.86 106.50 92.96 Paris maize 239.50 0.75 +0.31 135.00 77.41 Paris rapeseed 478.50 0.75 +0.16 287.50 66.43 CBOT wheat 794.50 4.50 +0.57 541.50 46.72 CBOT corn 755.25 -5.00 -0.66 414.50 82.21 CBOT soybeans 1376.00 -8.00 -0.58 1039.75 32.34 CBOT rice 14.09 0.17 +1.24 14.57 -3.29 Crude oil 107.75 -0.72 -0.66 79.36 35.77 Euro/dlr 1.42 0.00 -0.34 1.43 -1.02 *Front month contracts. CBOT contracts in cents per bushel except rice which is in dollars per hundredweight. Paris wheat in euros a tonne and London wheat in pounds per tonne

(Additional reporting by Valerie Parent and Guz Trompiz in Paris; editing by Jason Neely)

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