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Soybeans near 4-month high on S. America woes, China demand

Published 02/15/2012, 05:59 AM
Investing.com - Soybean futures rose for a fourth day on Wednesday, trading close to the previous session’s four-month high as ongoing concerns over soy crops in South America and speculation of increased demand from China boosted prices.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans futures for March delivery traded at USD12.5938 a bushel during European morning trade, gaining 0.4%.  

It earlier rose by as much as 0.55% to trade at USD12.6088 a bushel, just below the previous session’s four-month high of USD12.6162 a bushel.

Demand expectations for U.S. supplies were boosted after industry research group Oil World cut its forecast for South American soybean production for the current market year, saying that the recent rainfall over key soy-growing regions across the continent came too late to prevent crop losses.

The influential analysis group lowered its estimate for the Brazilian harvest by 500,000 tonnes to 69.5 million tonnes. Oil World also cut its forecast for the harvest in Paraguay, the world's fourth-ranked exporter, by 1.4 million tonnes to 4.6 million.

"There was little rainfall received in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina yesterday and very little expected in the next few days, further stressing developing soybeans and other crops," the German-based group said.

The downgrades more than offset a 500,000-tonne upgrade for the Argentine soybean harvest to 47.0 million tonnes.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for Argentina's soybean crops for the second month in a row to 48 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from January’s estimate.

The USDA also cut its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop to 72 million tonnes from 74 million in January.      

Argentina and Brazil are the world's second and third largest soy exporters. The downbeat South American crop outlook fuelled speculation China would import less soybeans from the South American countries and increase its reliance on U.S. supplies.   

Prospects of large purchases by top consumer China during a visit this week by Vice President Xi Jinping to the U.S. agricultural heartland provided further support.     

Last year, a Chinese trade delegation purchased 11.5 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans valued at USD6.7 billion during a visit to the U.S.

The USDA confirmed some of the sales the following day, rallying the market.

China imports 60% of soybeans shipped around the world, with the bulk of its purchases coming from the U.S. and Brazil, the world's top exporters.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat for March delivery rose 0.41% to trade at USD6.3763 a bushel, while corn for March delivery added 0.15% to trade at USD6.3488 a bushel.

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