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Yuan takes breather around 6.5/dollar, PBOC signals gradualism

Published 05/03/2011, 05:10 AM
Updated 05/03/2011, 05:16 AM
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* Yuan pulls back slightly from recent record highs

* PBOC fixes weaker mid-point, signals gradualism

* No drastic China yuan reforms expected in near term

* Yuan at 6.4968, up 5.07 pct since depegging

By Lu Jianxin and Jacqueline Wong

SHANGHAI, May 3 (Reuters) - The yuan pulled back slightly against the dollar on Tuesday from a slew of recent record highs, as the People's Bank of China fixed a marginally weaker mid-point, signalling the central bank will stick to gradualism in reforming the country's currency regime.

The consolidation came after the yuan breezed past 6.50 per dollar last Friday, surpassing the psychologically important level for the first time and raising expectations that Beijing will continue to let the currency strengthen quickly to battle stubbornly high inflation.

Monday was a public holiday in China.

Traders said Tuesday's weaker PBOC fixing indicated again that the government may choose not to conduct drastic reforms, such as a one-off revaluation or to widen the trading band. It may opt to let the yuan rise gradually in line with global market conditions, such as the fluctuation of commodity prices.

The indication was in contrast to speculation in overseas markets since late April that China may unshackle its tightly controlled foreign exchange regime.

Rumours have been fanned by a slew of record high PBOC fixings this year, and media reports quoting a PBOC adviser saying that a one-off revaluation could not be ruled out.

But academic adviser to the central bank, Xia Bin, is not a policymaker and his views do not represent the government's stance.

"Here we see some sort of behind-the-curve speculation on yuan appreciation that goes to the extreme in some cases," said a trader at a European bank in Shanghai. "We see little chance of China giving up its approach to gradualism for now."

Spot yuan closed at 6.4968 versus the dollar, down from 6.4910 at the close on Friday. It has now appreciated 5.07 percent since it was depegged from the dollar in June 2010, and 1.42 percent since the start of this year.

Before trading began, the PBOC set the day's mid-point at 6.5002, marginally lower than Friday's record fixing of 6.4990. The central uses the mid-point to express the governments' intention for the yuan's movements.

NO SURPRISE

Onshore traders said a quicker pace of yuan appreciation this year has been expected for months as China uses the exchange rate to help fight imported inflation and adjust the economic structure and relieve a heavy reliance on exports for growth. [ID:nTOE71H052]

Traders cautioned against shorting dollars too aggressively in long-term offshore dollar/yuan forwards because the recent fall in forwards has nearly closed the window on betting on yuan appreciation in these tenors.

One-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) were bid at 6.3210 in late trade on Tuesday, up from 6.2970 at the previous close. Their implied yuan appreciation in a year's time fell to 2.83 percent from 3.22 percent.

"The NDFs responded to the news of the killing of bin Laden with some investors expecting the dollar to rebound due to the news," said a trader at a Chinese commercial bank in Shenzhen. "But this piece of news is unlikely to have a lingering effect."

Osama bin Laden was killed in a U.S. special forces assault on a Pakistani compound, then quickly buried at sea, in a dramatic end to the long manhunt for the al Qaeda leader who had been the guiding star of global terrorism. [ID:nL3E7G30GI]

While drastic reforms are seen unlikely, the PBOC guided the yuan up by 0.9 percent in April compared with 0.4 percent in March, accelerating its appreciation at a time when the dollar has fallen to three-year lows against a basket of currencies.

Policymakers in Beijing have made it increasingly clear they are willing to use the currency as a means to fight inflation, which hit a 32-month high of 5.4 percent in March, partly boosted by surging global commodity prices.

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