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WRAPUP 3-Russia plans measures to curb hot money

Published 11/25/2009, 10:26 AM
Updated 11/25/2009, 10:30 AM

* Kudrin says stocks overheated on speculative capital

* Says to support "soft measures" to curb capital flows

* Kudrin says rates more important than cash injections

(Recasts, adds market reaction)

By Toni Vorobyova and Yelena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Wednesday he was alarmed by the amount of hot money flooding into Russia and would support "soft measures" to stop speculators from inflating the value of the stock market.

"We should be afraid of cheap money -- I mean speculative capital inflows," Kudrin, an influential deputy of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, told a Vedomosti financial forum.

"We, like many other markets, have received a large volume of short-term speculative money from world markets ... the (stock) index is inflated. It is overheated."

Kudrin later told reporters that Russia would not bring back capital controls -- which it scrapped in 2006.

But Moscow would consider other measures, such as requiring banks to hold bigger reserves against debts taken out in foreign currency or taxing the profits from speculative transactions.

Despite recent cuts, Russian interest rates of 9 percent are far higher than in many developed nations.

This attracts traders into so-called "carry trade" operations when they borrow in hard currency and then invest the cash in high-yield rouble assets such as state OFZ treasury bills or bonds of major firms like Gazprom.

"The (measures) cannot be direct restrictions on capital (flows)," Kudrin told reporters. "I mean they will be soft measures ... These can be reserve requirements, taxation on profits from transactions, not transactions themselves".

The rouble eased 0.5 percent on the day to 35.39 versus a euro-dollar basket, but was still 8 percent higher than at the start of September. Russia's MICEX stocks index fell 1.8 percent to its lowest in 1-1/2 weeks.

"I think Kudrin's comments this morning gave an excuse to take a bit of profit," said Tom Mundy, an analyst at Moscow investment bank Renaissance Capital.

Russian stocks have more than doubled in value since the start of 2009, making them among the best performers globally while the rouble rally threatens to undermine the recovery of Russia's export-oriented economy from recession.

The central bank, chaired by a close ally of Kudrin, Sergei Ignatyev, has cut rates to a historic low in a bid to slow the appreciation of the rouble and support the economy, including a 50 basis-point cut on Tuesday.

Central bank officials have already promised soft measures to curb speculative inflows, following steps that have been taken by Russia's BRIC peers.

CHANGING THE FLOWS

Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said the bank would step up interventions in the currency markets.

It will buy or sell roubles to guide the rate while the currency is still within its permitted trading corridor against a basket of dollars and euros, instead of just intervening when the rouble hits the band's boundaries.

Such a policy shift would make its activity less predictable and harder to spot, increasing the risk for would-be speculators in the rouble.

Some analysts doubted whether "soft" measures such as the ones Kudrin mentioned would make any real difference.

"To reduce the attractiveness of the carry trade, one needs to cut rates," said Vladimir Osakovsky, analyst at UniCredit Bank. "They need to be cut by another 1-1.5 percentage points. That is the only way (to discourage carry trades)."

Elina Ribakova from Citibank said it was vital to cap foreign borrowing by large public-sector firms.

State-run firms, such as energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, borrowed aggressively to fuel growth during the boom years and would strongly oppose the measure. Russian banks and firms have piled up over $400 billion in foreign debts.

NO STATE CASH INJECTION

In more bad news for the economy, Russian rate cuts have failed so far to translate to the entire banking sector, which is still lending at 15 percent or more to companies, fearing that more loans could turn bad if difficult times continue.

Kudrin said Russia's economy should use cheaper money rather than state cash injections to revive growth.

"Our goal should not consist of trying to support demand from the budget ... Demand will appear if there are low lending rates, if a businessman comes and says 'I want to build a factory'. Here is when the demand will appear," Kudrin said. (Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Michael Stott; editing by Stephen Nisbet) ((Moscow Newsroom, + 7 495 775 12 42))

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