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WRAPUP 3-Eurozone shrinks sharply, major nations all suffer

Published 02/13/2009, 06:22 AM
Updated 02/13/2009, 06:24 AM

(Rewrites with euro zone data, market response)

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The euro zone suffered its deepest contraction on record in the last quarter of 2008 with its main constituents -- Germany, France and Italy -- all faring badly, casting severe doubt on any nascent recovery hopes.

Gross domestic product in the 15 countries then using the euro shrank 1.5 percent from the previous quarter, worse than forecasts for a 1.3 percent drop, statistics office Eurostat said on Friday.

"These are huge contractions in Europe, the largest in living memory in most cases," said Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas.

Stock markets did not sell-off, however.

European shares were up two percent, drawing strength from a U.S. plan to subsidise mortgage payments for troubled home owners. The U.S. Congress is also expected to pass a $789 billion economic stimulus package later on Friday.

Some investors have seized upon glimmers of hope from January activity surveys, suggesting that the last part of 2008 may prove to have been the worst for the world's top economies as massive government pump-priming takes effect.

Friday's data will severely test that theory.

Europe's biggest economy, Germany, shrank a bigger-than-expected 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, its worst quarterly performance since reunification in 1990.

French GDP fell 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, shrinking at its fastest pace in 34 years. Economists had predicted a drop of 1.1 percent.

Italy provided no respite -- its economy declined by 1.8 percent on the quarter, significantly worse than forecasts for a 1.2 percent slide and the biggest drop since at least the start of the data series in 1980.

"The best we can hope is that Q4 marked the worst quarter in terms of the pace of contraction," said Martin Van Vliet at ING.

"(But) Q4's slump provides a terrible carry-over for 2009. Our base case is for euro zone real GDP to drop by 2.3 percent this year as a whole, with the balance of risks skewed to an even weaker outcome."

Other releases showed Dutch GDP shrank 0.9 percent on the quarter while the Austrian economy sagged by 0.2 percent, the first fall in nearly eight years.

Portugal's economy declined by 2.0 percent.

Spanish data started the rot on Thursday, showing its economy shrank by one percent, its fastest pace in 15 years, pushing it into recession for the first time since 1993.

FRIDAY 13TH

Germany, Britain and the euro zone are already officially in recession -- as are the United States and Japan.

Anaemic French growth in the third quarter officially keeps it just out of the clutches of recession.

"This is really Friday the 13th," said Carsten Brzeski at ING Financial Markets of the German figures.

"The only positive note ... is that a horrible fourth quarter can now finally be filed away. It can hardly get worse. However, the new year has not started well," he said. "A recovery in the truest sense of the word will only materialise in 2010."

Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the contraction was led by a decline in investment and net trade. Since 1990, Europe's largest economy had never previously shrunk by more than 1.2 percent in a quarter, according to Bundesbank data.

Government officials have already said further contraction is likely in the first quarter of 2009.

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said she expected a tough 2009 but took heart from the fact that household consumption, a key driver of French growth, rose 0.5 percent.

It was the only bright spot.

Business investment fell 1.5 percent while public investment dropped 1.6 percent. Exports tumbled 3.7 percent and imports slid 2.2 percent, while stocks declined by 0.9 percent, confirming dire news from companies.

"We will have a difficult year ... I think growth will be lower than -1 percent," Lagarde told RTL radio. (Writing by Mike Peacock; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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