* RBA says rates OK, counters talk of imminent tightening
* Market still wagering on Nov hike, fully priced for Dec
* Q2 GDP forecasts trimmed back to slight 0.2 pct rise
* Upbeat building, manufacturing data positive for 2nd half (Adds market reaction)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday left interest rates steady at 3.0 percent as expected and surprised some by saying this record low level was right for the time being, countering talk of an imminent tightening.
The local dollar slipped and bill futures rallied as investors scaled back the chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moving as early as October, though markets still showed a 66 percent chance of a hike to 3.25 percent in November.
"It sounds like the RBA doesn't want to bang the drum about rate hikes," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie. "This is a much less hawkish statement than the markets had anticipated."
Based on overnight indexed swaps, one of the best guides to market thinking on the cash rate, these was less than a one-in-five chance of a move in October compared with 50 percent before the announcement.
Some 20 basis points of tightening are priced in for November, and 36 basis points for December.
Another measure from Credit Suisse shows the market has already priced in a total of 175 basis points of tightening in the next 12 months.
"The RBA is reasonably upbeat, both about the global and the Australian economies and, in particular, about China," noted Su-Lin Ong, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets.
"All in all, this is not consistent with a cash rate of 3 percent, which clearly is an emergency setting."
Last month, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted he had cut rates so low in anticipation of an economic rout that never happened, so it was likely rates would have to rise at some stage.
In a brief statement after Tuesday's monthly policy meeting, Stevens emphasised that the domestic economy had been surprisingly strong and highlighted the improved outlook for business investment. "It now appears that investment may not be as weak over the year ahead as earlier expected," said Stevens.
Home construction was picking up and, combined with fiscal pump priming, should see the economy firm into 2010. That, in turn, meant that inflation might not fall as first thought.
WARY ON Q2 GDP
The interest rate swap curves of most major currencies steepened earlier this year in anticipation of a prolonged period of low rates, but the shorter end of the Aussie dollar curve has now become flatter than those in U.S. dollars or euros, implying a rate rise is more imminent in Australia.
"The RBA has upgraded their medium-term view a notch, but certainly not enough to suggest that they will pull the trigger on rates in October," said Spiros Papadopoulos, an economist at National Australia Bank.
"Today's Statement was about reaffirming that the next move is up, but not until a durable recovery is seen."
The RBA may have had a wary eye on the government's report on gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter, due on Wednesday.
Hopes had been high for a solid pick-up in growth led by consumption and business investment, but unexpected drags from international trade and inventories undercut that.
A Reuters poll of 18 analysts taken on Tuesday gave a median forecast of just 0.2 percent growth last quarter, down from an initial estimate of 0.6 percent and actual growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter.
Still, the outlook for the rest of the year was supported by upbeat data on new home approvals and manufacturing on Tuesday.
Approvals to build new homes jumped 7.7 percent in July, on top of a 9.9 percent surge in June, as low mortgage rates and government grants to first-home buyers fuelled demand.
And the Australian Industry Group/PriceWaterhouseCoopers Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) jumped 7.2 points to 51.7 August.
That was above the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction, a major turnaround for a sector that accounts for about a tenth of Australia's A$1 trillion-economy.
"All of which tells you that economic policy is working in Australia and we have been able to defy all those predictions of our imminent economic death," said Michael Blythe, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank.
"The risks have shifted in the direction of the RBA moving sooner," he added. "But we believe that there is enough uncertainty in the outlook and enough disinflationary forces at work to favour a cautious approach." (Editing by Kazunori Takada)