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WRAPUP 2-Russia growth outlook brightens, rouble key risk

Published 10/21/2009, 09:33 AM
Updated 10/21/2009, 09:39 AM

* Economy ministry raises 2010 growth forecast

* Fin Min says stronger oil may mean smaller deficit

* Official warns more currency strength may hurt economy

* Rouble hits highest level since Jan vs basket

(Adds Kudrin; more quotes from Klepach, Ulyukayev; banks)

By Darya Korsunskaya and Yelena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Russia's economy ministry turned more upbeat on growth prospects for next year on Wednesday but said the strength of the rouble -- now scaling fresh highs versus a euro-dollar basket -- is a key risk.

Growing investor appetite for emerging markets coupled with a rally in oil prices to one-year highs has improved the outlook for the resource-rich economy, helping it clamber out of its first recession in a decade in the third quarter.

As a result, the economy ministry now reckons next year's growth could top 2 percent if oil prices stay high, up from its previous forecast of 1.6 percent.

Greater revenues from energy companies' taxes could also ensure this year's budget deficit is smaller than expected, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.

Russia's Urals oil hit one-year peaks of $77 a barrel this week, $20 higher than the level set in the budget.

But on the flip side, high oil prices fan a rouble rally, which could eventually undermine competitiveness and growth.

On Wednesday the rouble firmed to 35.63 versus a euro-dollar basket, its strongest since January, and held near the previous day's peaks of 29.13 per dollar.

"The appreciation of the rouble allows for lower inflation, increases trust in the banking system," Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters.

"But the competitiveness of our (economy's) sectors remains low and in the medium-term that creates fairly serious risks," he added, noting that 26-27 roubles per dollar would be a dangerous level.

Previously, officials have said they are not concerned about the current rouble levels as long as sharp fluctuations are avoided. On Wednesday, central bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev reiterated that a strong rouble has both advantages and disadvantages.

STRONGER ECONOMY LURES INVESTORS

The central bank has regularly intervened in the currency market to keep the rouble appreciation gradual, allowing the currency to firm by 5 kopecks against the basket for each $700 million of interventions.

Since the start of October the central bank has purchased some $9 billion, according to Ulyukayev. Dealers said the intervention level is now at 35.60 per basket.

Despite the interventions, the rouble has gained around 15 percent from its February troughs, clawing back around half of the devaluation experienced at the height of the crisis.

"If investors expect that the economy will grow, then the value of all assets will increase ... and this is reflected in the strengthening of the national currency," Ulyukayev said, forecasting rouble gains could continue if oil prices stay high.

One advantage of the stronger rouble though is a reduction of inflation through cheaper prices for imported goods.

Consumer prices have been flat for 7 weeks, and Ulyukayev said 2009 inflation could be under 10 percent.

Reduced price pressures, in turn, have enabled the central bank to cut interest rates, further supporting the recovery by encouraging banks to offer cheaper loans to the real economy.

"There is scope to cut rates (further) in the near future: before the end of this year and next year," Ulyukayev said

Economic recovery can also be seen in the banking sector -- central bank stress tests showed no major threat to the banking system, while September saw the first fall in the volume of non-performing loans since the start of 2009.

But Klepach remained cautious.

"The crisis will (end) when growth will be sustainable. We are awaiting this in the second half of next year," he said. (Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh and Oksana Kobzeva; writing by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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