WRAPUP 3-Brazil data fuels worries on future policy choices

Published 11/23/2010, 11:58 AM

* Brazil consumer prices rise above forecast to mid-Nov.

* Speculation abounds on next central bank chief

* Yields on interest rate futures rise in early trade (Recasts lead, adds expected announcement of picks, magazine interview)

By Luciana Lopez

SAO PAULO, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Disappointing data on Brazil's inflation rate on Tuesday fueled fears that the central bank might need to hike interest rates and added to nervousness about the economic team still to be appointed by President-elect Dilma Rousseff.

Brazil also reported its current account deficit worsened in October from a year earlier, and investors priced in steeper borrowing costs.

Consumer prices jumped more than expected in the month to mid-November, pushing inflation farther from the center of a government target. For more see [ID:nN23291561].

Markets are keenly awaiting Rousseff's appointment of her economic team, with investors worried about the willingness to make tough policy choices.

"You have to have confidence that the economic team coming in realizes the risk and rewards of each policy instrument, and quite frankly what the market would want to see is a strong central bank and a fiscal adjustment, given the excesses of the last years," said Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, a strategist at RBS Securities.

A spokeswoman for Rousseff said the president-elect could announce her choices for the Finance Ministry and central bank by Thursday.

The worsening of the current account deficit in October was partly a reflection of an increasingly stronger -- and worrisome -- currency. [ID:nN23101977]

Despite the short-term worries, few economists see Brazil abandoning the policies -- such as inflation targeting and a floating exchange rate -- that have helped turn Latin America's largest economy into an emerging market powerhouse,

Nevertheless, speculation has swirled around Rousseff's possible picks. With Guido Mantega set to remain finance minister, focus has shifted to the next central bank head.

A source on Monday told Reuters that current chief Henrique Meirelles would leave, fanning market concerns that the next administration could chip away at the bank's de facto autonomy. [ID:nSAQ002535].

"There's all this context of doubt and uncertainty about the next government and the pressure from the inflation indices that's giving the market more room to demand a greater premium," said Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist for CM Capital Markets in Sao Paulo.

Local media reported on Tuesday that Rousseff is considering tapping Alexandre Tombini, head of financial regulation at the central bank and a market favorite, to take over his boss's seat.

The central bank declined to comment.

Yields on interest rate futures contracts <0#DIJ:> rose after data showed the 12-month inflation rate rose to 5.47 percent to mid-November from 5.03 percent to mid-October. The yield on the contract due January 2012 , among the most highly traded of the early session, rose as high as 11.9 percent from 11.77 percent on Monday -- its highest since mid-July, implying more than 2 percentage points of hikes by the end of 2011.

The benchmark Selic lending rate is currently at 10.75 percent, one of the highest among major economies.

CENTRAL BANK POSSIBILITIES

Tombini was one of the architects of Brazil's inflation targeting regime, which was adopted in 1999 and helped usher in the price stability and economic boom of recent years. His appointment -- or the appointment of a handful of other relatively hawkish figures -- could help the markets recover confidence in the bank's independence.

One of those possibilities, Octavio de Barros of Banco Bradesco , appeared to take himself out of the running in an interview online with newsmagazine Exame.

"It's very kind to see my name mentioned, but people who know me understand very well that I don't have this ambition. This is not merely rhetorical. I absolutely do not," he said.

Rousseff has stressed that she wants to see lower real interest rates, or nominal rates minus inflation.

The government's inflation target for this year and next is 4.5 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Brazilian interest rates remain among the world's highest, a legacy of years of runaway prices and the country's history as an underperforming economic basketcase.

But the country has become a bright spot in recent years, with economic expansion this year seen at 7 percent or more -- a stark contrast to still-struggling developed economies such as the United States and Japan. (Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth in Rio de Janeiro, Bruno Peres and Ana Nicolaci da Costa in Brasilia and Vanessa Stelzer in Sao Paulo; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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