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WRAPUP 1-S.Korean economy gathers steam, global woes linger

Published 12/01/2009, 03:46 AM
Updated 12/01/2009, 03:48 AM

* Nov exports rise on year, first time in 13 months

* Nov consumer inflation, housing prices pick up

* Bond prices up on Dubai debacle, global trade woes

By Yoo Choonsik

SEOUL, Dec 1 (Reuters) - South Korean exports climbed above year-ago levels for the first time in 13 months in November and inflation picked up, but more evidence of economic recovery did not sway markets, betting that interest rates will stay low for some time.

Renewed worries about the health of global financial markets sparked by Dubai's debt problems convinced debt traders that the Bank of Korea will be in no rush to raise its benchmark rate, even as Asia's fourth-largest economy was recovering quickly.

Exports rose 18.8 percent from November 2008 after a year of double-digit declines, imports rose on higher demand for inputs for domestic production and consumption, inflation hit a 6-month high and house prices rose after 7 months of annual declines.

Analysts expected to see a similar bounce in exports elsewhere in Asia, but warned that the recovery remained driven mostly by demand from China and other emerging markets.

"Low year-ago figures and resilient demand from within the region should keep annual growth rates high for the time being and this will be the case for most countries (in Asia)," said Lee Sang-jae, senior economist at Hyundai Securities.

"But the advanced economies are still far from a full recovery and, so, this will affect countries like Japan that are dependent relatively more on these markets."

Such concerns about the global economic and financial outlook, supported bonds and the benchmark 5-year treasury bond yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.57 percent and the 1-year yield fell 3 basis points to 3.09 percent.

"Much of the data was absolutely not friendly to bond prices and we also had Australia's additional interest rate increase, but investors completely ignored these," said Kong Dong-rak, a fixed-income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities.

"The recent reaction to Dubai debt problems underscored just how fragile the global financial markets are and investors are betting this will force the Bank of Korea to keep rates low for some time," he said.

Some traders said the Bank of Japan's emergency meeting held on Tuesday also underscored that the world's most advanced economies were still not out of the woods after the worst global downturn in generations.

EXAGGERATED GROWTH, SUBDUED PRICES

The Bank of Korea has over the past two months toned down its warnings about the risks of asset price bubbles, persuading investors to scale back their expectations for an increase in interest rates over the next several months.

Analysts said Tuesday's figures, albeit strong, fell short of prompting any shift in those expectations.

They pointed out that annual exports growth came below market expectations of a 20.9 percent rise, and that the average value per working day -- a measure of monthly performance -- only edged up to $1.49 billion from $1.48 billion in October.

Annual inflation picked up to 2.4 percent from 2.0 in October, but service costs stayed subdued, official data showed, indicating no immediate threat of home-grown price pressures.

Housing prices turned higher over a year earlier in November, but the Bank of Korea has made it clear in recent weeks it was prepared to wait for the effects of lending controls introduced in the past quarter before taking any action.

The central bank, which has held the 7-day repurchase agreement rate steady at a record low of 2.0 percent for the past nine months, will next review policy on Dec. 10. (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo and Seo Eun-kyung; Editing by Tomasz Janowski) ((choonsik.yoo@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5580; Reuters Messaging: choonsik.yoo.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))

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