🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

WRAPUP 1-UK consumers tighten belts in face of GDP slump

Published 09/29/2009, 08:52 AM
Updated 09/29/2009, 08:57 AM
BNPP
-

* UK Q2 GDP revised up to -0.6 percent qq, yy steady at -5.5 percent

* UK consumers repaid record 309 million sterling in credit in August

* UK savings ratio rises to five-year high of 5.6 percent in Q2

* Mortgage lending rises to highest since February

* CBI reports first retail sales growth since April

By David Milliken

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The scale of Britons' belt-tightening was laid bare on Tuesday by data showing record consumer credit repayments in August and a five-year high in households' savings ratio in the second quarter.

Official data confirmed Britain's economy suffered its worst 12 months since modern records began in 1955, with output falling by 5.5 percent year-on-year in Q2.

Faced with a growing risk of unemployment, households reduced debt levels and increased savings -- as well as finding it harder to access cheap loan deals.

But economists focused on a more positive outlook ahead, with most expecting a hesitant return to GDP growth in the third quarter amid signs that the economy has passed its low-point.

The Confederation of British Industry's September retail survey reported the first sales growth since April -- which analysts had viewed as a blip caused by the late timing of Easter -- while August mortgage lending was much better than expected and its highest since February.

"The September CBI survey lifts hopes that retail sales are holding up pretty well after losing momentum in August. This is important to overall growth prospects given that consumer spending accounts for some 65 percent of GDP," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.

RECORD DEBT REPAYMENT

The positive news from the CBI came despite data from the Bank of England which showed consumers repaid a record net 309 million pounds ($493 million) of unsecured debt -- mostly credit card balances -- trumping the 259 million pound record set in July.

This chimed with figures from the Office for National Statistics which showed the household savings rate rose to 5.6 percent in Q2 from 3.9 percent in the first three months of the year, its highest since late 2003 and further evidence that the credit boom earlier in the decade is now long gone.

Nonetheless, BoE figures showed growing signs of a turnaround in mortgage finance -- a precondition for sustaining tentative rises in house prices, which boost consumer confidence and some types of retail spending.

The number of mortgage approvals slipped fractionally in August to 52,317 but remained close to July's upwardly-revised 52,404, the highest since April 2008. Net mortgage lending rose by 1.009 billion pounds, the biggest rise since February.

But evidence the Bank of England's 175 billion pound quantitative easing policy -- printing money to buy assets and boost the economy -- was increasing the broad money supply as intended, remained elusive.

The BoE's preferred measure rose just 0.2 percent in August after a 0.4 percent rise in July.

"There is still enough in this report to keep the MPC concerned about money and credit growth. And although we expect nominal GDP growth to recover in Q3, the current pace is still a far cry from the near 5 percent trend in nominal demand the MPC wants to see," said Allan Monks, UK economist at JP Morgan.

Q2 BLEAK BUT HOPE FOR Q3

New GDP estimates confirmed the broad picture of economic woe for the first half of 2009.

The economy shrank by 0.6 percent between April and June rather than 0.7 percent as earlier estimated, after construction output turned out to have been stronger than first thought due to public investment and infrastructure projects.

But from January to March the economy shrank by 2.5 percent, more than the previous 2.4 percent estimate after it transpired that the services sector had done worse.

As a result, the record 5.5 percent contraction in the 12 months to June remained unrevised.

"It changes nothing really. We care a bit more about what happened in Q3, and I think given the survey indicators and monthly data we can look forward to a reasonable positive in Q3," said Alan Clarke, UK economist at BNP Paribas.

Separately, the ONS released data showing a current account deficit of 11.424 billion pounds, the biggest since Q3 2007 and equivalent to 3.3 percent of GDP.

* For a TABLE of BoE credit and M4 data, see

* For a TABLE of Q2 GDP data, see

* For a TABLE of Q2 current account data see

* For a TABLE of CBI retail data, see

* For more economists' views on the data see

* For a graphic showing UK mortgage approvals and house prices, see http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/099/UK_MTGNWI0909.jpg

* For a graphic showing UK GDP and PMI data, see http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/099/UK_GDPPMI0909.jpg

(Additional reporting by Christina Fincher, Fiona Shaikh and Luke Baker, editing by Mike Peacock) ($1=.6272 Pound)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.