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WRAPUP 1-Russia says low rates to become key stimulus

Published 11/25/2009, 04:28 AM
Updated 11/25/2009, 04:33 AM

* Rates more important than state cash injections

* Officials say stocks overheated on speculative capital

* C.bank to cut collateral free lending

(Combines Kudrin, Ulyukayev)

By Toni Vorobyova and Lena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Russia's economy needs stimulus measures via low lending rates instead of state cash injections, officials said on Wednesday, while pledging to curb speculative capital inflows which are pushing the rouble and stocks up.

"Our goal should not consist of trying to support demand from the budget... Demand will appear if there are low lending rates, if a businessman comes and says -- I want to build a factory. Here is when the demand will appear," Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told an investment conference.

The comments follow a 50 basis point cut in the central bank's refinancing rate on Tuesday to a historic low of 9 percent in a bid to slow the appreciation of the rouble and support the economy. [ID:nGEE5AN0VX]

"The crisis will continue for another one-two years despite renewed economic growth," said Kudrin. "It is too early to exit from (stimulus) packages, we need to maintain demand. The situation has not stabilised yet," Kudrin said.

Tuesday's rate cut took cumulative easing so far this year to 400 basis points but has failed so far to translate to the entire banking sector, which is lending at 15 percent or more to industries, fearing another spike in bad loans.

The central bank repeated on Wednesday more cuts were possible because it saw little risk of a spike in inflation in the first half of 2010.

A traditional rise in January will be two times lower than in January 2009, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told the same conference.

Despite cuts Russian rates remain much higher than in many developed nations, offering very attractive yields for carry trade operations against rates of 1 percent or less in Western economies.

The rouble has rallied since September and government officials have warned further strengthening could undermine the recovery of Russia's export-oriented economy.

Central bank officials have already promised soft measures to curb speculative inflows to emulate steps already taken by Russia's BRIC peers.

Those measures could include changes in reserve requirements, caps on banks' open foreign currency positions and also broader regulation on cross-border action such as taxes. [ID:nLJ54381]

"We should be afraid of cheap money--I mean speculative capital inflows. What we need is to ensure that financial markets guarantee the country's development (giving out loans) at rates of 5-7 percent with a 7-10 year maturity," Kudrin said.

"We, like many other markets, have received a large volume of short-term speculative money from the world markets. They have arrived, they are among us, and the index is inflated, it is overheated," he said.

Russian stock indexes have more than doubled in value since the beginning of 2009, making them one of the best performers globally.

Ulyukayev said the central bank was also prepared to step up intervention on the forex market when the rouble fluctuates within the 35-38 rouble per dollar/euro basket corridor.

He also repeated the regulator would increase reserve requirements but gave no details and added it will also cut lending to banks.

"Net credit to banks will fall by several times. We are changing the terms of collateral-free loans. It de facto means the phasing out of anti-crisis measures," said Ulyukayev. (Moscow Newsroom, + 7 495 775 12 42; editing by Chris Pizzey)

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