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WRAPUP 1-Russia looks to reserves for budget cash, stocks fall

Published 11/12/2008, 11:35 AM
Updated 11/12/2008, 11:38 AM

* Finance Minister Kudrin says crisis to last another year

* Russian stocks trading suspended after fall

* Central bank defends rouble at new support level

By Toni Vorobyova and Melissa Akin

MOSCOW, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Russia's financial crisis will last at least another year and the government will have to dip into reserves to plug gaps in next year's budget if oil prices remain low, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Wednesday. His comments came as stock markets slumped, and dealers estimated the central bank had spent $2-3 billion to support the rouble around the 30.70 mark versus a euro-dollar basket -- seen as the central bank's new support level.

There were also signs that some banks were delaying withdrawals and state bank VEB said companies and banks had asked for 50 percent more in aid on foreign debt refinancing than allocated for the purpose.

"You will see more support measures for the economy this week. I think we will need to work hard for at least another year," Kudrin told the upper house of parliament.

"The Finance Ministry has been put into army barracks regime, and the central bank is working until 2 a.m., reacting to everything," he added.

As a resource-dependent economy and the world's number two oil exporter, Russia is taking a tough hit from the global slowdown.

Raspadskaya, Russia's second-largest producer of coal for the steel industry, said on Wednesday fourth-quarter sales would reach only one-third of planned volumes after steel makers slashed orders.

"Developed countries will have falls in GDP...which means that demand for Russian exports will be significantly lower. We are already feeling this in the fourth quarter," Kudrin said.

The global crisis has accelerated the flight of investor capital from Russia, adding to outflows kick-started in the summer by high-profile corporate wrangles and war with Georgia.

The cost of insuring Russian debt against restructuring or default rose to 788 basis points in the five-year credit default swap market from 614 on Tuesday, according to specialist CDS monitor CMA Datavision.

SENTIMENT "RELENTLESSLY NEGATIVE"

Russia's most liquid stocks index, the MICEX, was suspended all session after Tuesday's 12.6 percent fall. The dollar-denominated RTS index lost 12.5 percent on Wednesday before trade was halted until the following day.

"Sentiment toward Russia is relentlessly negative," London based Uralsib equity trader Julian Rimmer said.

The stock market slumps and capital flight have forced the central bank into almost daily interventions to prop up the rouble, helping shave over $100 billion of Russia's gold and forex reserves in the last three months.

On Tuesday the central bank allowed the rouble to depreciate one percent below its previously defended threshold of 30.41 against a euro-dollar basket, and then spent an estimated $7 billion defending a new support level seen around 30.70.

The rouble closed at 30.67 on Wednesday, with dealers estimating the day's interventions at $2-3 billion.

In a bid to discourage capital flight the central bank hiked key interest rates by one percentage point late on Tuesday, and raised its currency swap rate by two percentage points.

Moscow has pledged a wide-ranging rescue package worth around $200 billion for the economy and markets.

The package includes help for corporates struggling to refinance foreign debt during the credit crunch, with the head of VEB Vladimir Dmitriyev quoted as saying the state bank had received $75 billion in such bids.

A high level government source said last month that it was possible for the cash pot to be increased.

Although depleted, Russia's reserves are still worth nearly $0.5 trillion, giving it plenty of ammunition against the crisis.

The pot includes a Reserve Fund, which serves as a safety cushion for the budget and totalled $134.6 billion on Nov. 1.

Kudrin said that money will enable Russia to stick to its 2009 budget, even though he now expects oil prices to average $50 a barrel versus the $95 factored into the budget.

"With the oil price at $50 a barrel we will have to supplement the budget from the Reserve Fund," he said.

Ordinary Russians have so far largely overlooked the crisis, which has received scant coverage in the state media. But the fall in the rouble's value versus the dollar to 2-1/2 year lows is prompting some to start changing their money into foreign currency, while banks are reporting falls in deposits.

ING said a poll of staff in its Moscow Financial Markets department, most of whom are paid in roubles, showed 55 percent planned to convert the next salary into dollars or euros, while 42 percent had no such plans.

Around 20 commercial banks have been reported as delaying attempts by retail depositors to withdraw funds, according to the Deposit Insurance Agency, while the central bank said three banks have lost their licences. (Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh, Alfred Kueppers and Dmitry Sergeev; editing by Tony Austin)

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