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WRAPUP 1-Russia growth outlook brightens, rouble key risk

Published 10/21/2009, 05:23 AM
Updated 10/21/2009, 05:27 AM

* Econ Min raises 2010 growth forecast

* Official warns more currency strength may hurt economy

* Rouble hits highest level since Jan vs basket

By Darya Korsunskaya and Yelena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Russia's economy ministry turned more upbeat on growth prospects for next year but said the strength of the rouble -- which scaled fresh highs versus a euro-dollar basket on Wednesday -- was a key risk.

Growing investor appetite for emerging market coupled with a rally in oil prices to one-year highs has improved the outlook for the resource-rich economy, helping it clamber out of its first recession in a decade in the third quarter.

As a result, the Economy Ministry now reckons next year's growth could top 2 percent if oil prices stay high.

But that also bring a risk -- the gains in crude have helped fan a rally in the rouble which could eventually undermine competitiveness and thus growth.

On Wednesday the rouble firmed to 35.63 versus a euro-dollar basket, its strongest since January, and held near the previous day's peaks of 29.13 per dollar.

"The appreciation of the rouble allows for lower inflation, increases trust in the banking system," said Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach.

"But the competitiveness of our (economy's) sectors remains low and in the medium-term that creates fairly serious risks," he added, noting that 26-27 roubles per dollar would be a dangerous level.

A stronger rouble has helped bring down inflation in Russia by making imports cheaper. But on the flip side it makes it harder for companies to compete abroad and dents their value of their dollar-denominated earnings.

Previously officials had said they were not concerned about the current rouble levels as long as overly sharp exchange rate fluctuations were avoided.

To this end, the central bank has been regularly intervening in the currency market to keep the pace of rouble appreciation gradual, allowing the currency to firm by 5 kopecks against the basket for each $700 million of interventions.

On Tuesday, it purchased $1.5 billion, the central bank's First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said.

Dealers estimated the regulator also bought $700 million on Wednesday, before shifting its intervention level to 35.60 roubles per basket from 35.65.

"Logically the central bank must be at 35.60," said Alexei Zaitsev, trader at UniCredit.

The price of Russia's Urals oil hit one-year highs above $77 a barrel this week -- some $20 higher than the levels factored into this year's budget -- fuelling the rouble rally and improving Russia's economic prospects.

"If oil prices stay at current levels that could add 0.5-0.8 percentage points to economic growth per year," Klepach said.

"On the whole for (next year) we expect more than planned -- (growth) of 2 percent or more," he added.

Previously, his ministry had forecast next year's growth at 1.6 percent after a contraction of 8.5 percent in 2009. (Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh; writing by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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