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WRAPUP 1-Russia exits recession, rouble sets new highs

Published 10/20/2009, 08:33 AM
Updated 10/20/2009, 08:36 AM

* Rouble hits highest since Dec against dollar

* GDP up in Q3, jobless rate at 10-mth low in Sept

* Finmin says can talk about exiting recession

By Toni Vorobyova and Denis Pinchuk

MOSCOW/ST PETERSBURG, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russia's economy put recession behind it with third quarter growth, data showed on Tuesday, giving investors a further reason to chase the rouble to its strongest since December against the dollar.

At 1110 GMT, the rouble traded at 29.17 per dollar, 11 kopecks stronger from Monday's close, and analysts said the central bank, by letting the rouble scale new highs, confirmed Russia is gradually moving towards a free-floating currency.

A recovery in oil and commodity prices, a revival in global debt markets and investors' renewed appetite for emerging markets put Russia's economy on the recovery path in the summer.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.4 percent in the April to June period, quarter-on-quarter, marking its first increase in over a year, data from the Economy Ministry showed.

"We can talk about an exit from recession," Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told reporters in St Petersburg. The recovery thesis was further supported by the jobless rate falling to a 10-month low of 7.6 percent in September and retail sales posting a fourth month of increases, although the pace of growth slowed.

The economy has also been given a boost by 300 basis points worth of interest rate cuts since April and officials' signals that more will come as long as inflation keeps easing.

Full year inflation will not exceed 10.3 percent, compared to the government forecast of 11-12 percent, the central bank's First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said.

ROUBLE EYES FREE FLOAT

Despite the rate cuts, Russia's refinancing rate at 10.00 percent offers attractive yields compared to rates of 1 percent or less in the rest of the G8.

Along with the brighter economic outlook and stronger oil prices this has been one of the factors supporting the rouble.

The central bank has allowed the currency to appreciate in what analysts say shows Russia is sticking by its aim to move to a free float over the next 3 years.

But it has been regularly intervening in the currency market in a bid to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations. It bought over $1 billion on Tuesday, Ulyukayev said.

The central bank likely moved its intervention level for a second time on Tuesday, dealers said, allowing the currency to set a fresh high versus a euro-dollar basket.

Reuters data showed the currency strengthening as far as 35.66 versus the basket which the central bank uses to guide its exchange rate policy, its strongest since January. Dealers said the new level was likely located at 35.65, compared with its previous level of 35.70.

The rouble has notched up seven consecutive weeks of gains versus the basket, propelled by strong oil prices, growing investor appetite for high-yielding emerging markets and signs the domestic economy is on the mend.

Russia's Urals oils blend rose to one-year highs above $75 a barrel this week. When it was last so strong, the rouble traded at 30.40 versus the basket -- some 15 percent stronger than now, potentially leaving scope for further appreciation.

Dealers said the regulator moved its intervention level to 35.70 from 35.75, following its policy of moves in 5 kopeck steps for each $700 million of interventions.

"I think what we are seeing is an almost complete move to a policy of inflation targeting," said Vladimir Tikhomirov, economist at Uralsib.

"The central bank now sees its aim as smoothing out (rouble) fluctuations, rather than fixing the rate at a particular level. The latest comments suggest that on the part of the government such policy has met with support." (Additional reporting by Yelena Fabrichnaya; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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