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WRAPUP 1-Russia, Kazakhstan eye forex action to stem rallies

Published 11/18/2009, 12:02 PM
Updated 11/18/2009, 12:06 PM

* Russian, Kazakh currencies pushed up by strong oil

* Russia considering soft measures to limit inflows

* Kazakhstan warns foreigners betting on tenge rally

(Adds details, background, quotes)

By Yelena Fabrichnaya and Olzhas Auyezov

MOSCOW/ALMATY, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Russia and Kazakhstan on Wednesday stepped up rhetoric against speculative bets on their currencies, with Moscow eyeing new measures against capital inflows and Astana ready to crack down on foreign players.

Investors keen to cash in on the rally in oil prices have rushed into the two energy-exporting neighbours, sending their currencies higher and causing some concern that fragile economic recoveries could be compromised.

Russia has to date allowed the rouble to appreciate gradually to 35.03 versus a euro-dollar basket, its strongest since January and up 9 percent since September.

But there are some signs officials are getting concerned about the inflow of hot money.

"I am against resuming capital control measures. At the same time, there are other measures, softer ones, which could slow down the inflow of speculative capital ... It is being discussed," Russian central bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev told reporters.

Measures could include monitoring external borrowing of state-controlled companies and re-introducing differentiated minimum reserve requirements for banks' liabilities in foreign currency versus those in the rouble, he added.

Analysts say Russia could also step up its currency interventions and press on with interest rate cuts in a bid to further restrain the rouble's rally.

FOREIGNERS

Kazakhstan has kept the tenge in a fairly narrow 145-155 range versus the dollar since February, but the rise in oil prices as well as the rally in the rouble are putting more appreciation pressure on the currency.

"We ... had to buy over $2 billion to stop the tenge from appreciating too fast," Kazakh central bank chief Grigory Marchenko said on Wednesday, adding that about a quarter of that sum had come from foreign players.

"They (foreign players) will be able to earn some money," he said. "But we won't allow them to gain a lot."

Marchenko pledged to intervene more if the tenge goes beyond 147.50 per dollar compared to 149.14 now and 150.69 a week ago.

In other emerging markets, the weak dollar has prompted countries to look for new ways to cushion their economies, with Brazil introducing a tax on foreign investment in its fixed income and stock markets.

Analysts have said Moscow is unlikely to follow in Brazil's footsteps, but could implement less radical measures.

Moscow has repeatedly pledged not to re-introduce capital controls -- scrapped in 2006 -- and resisted pressure to do so during the height of crisis-time capital flight.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said that a lack of capital controls is key to attracting foreign investment into Russia, which is looking for fresh cash to help the economy recover from its first recession in a decade.

Russia hopes to raise $3 billion from privatisations next year and cut state share in the economy to 30 percent from 50 percent in the next few years. Analysts and investors say the country needs to improve its investment climate and the rule of law if it wants to attract long-term, strategic capital.

Kazakhstan has introduced legislation allowing it to enforce capital controls if deemed necessary but so far the authorities have not used the option. (Writing by Toni Vorobyova and Maria Golovnina; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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