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WRAPUP 1-Russia's top banker says new asset bubbles a threat

Published 01/21/2010, 10:54 AM
Updated 01/21/2010, 10:57 AM

* Sberbank CEO warns of excess liquidity, bubble risks

* Russia to seek integration with EU, ex-Soviet neighbours

* Deputy PM promises more tax breaks

(Combines earlier stories, adds details, quotes)

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, Jan 21 (Reuters) - New asset bubbles resulting from excess liquidity are a threat to Russia's modernisation drive and may lead to the economy overheating again as early as next year, the head of the country's biggest bank said on Thursday.

After suffering the heaviest blow from the global crisis among the four major emerging economies in the BRIC group, which also includes Brazil, India and China, Russia has sought to diversify its economy away from the vulnerable energy sector.

The modernisation drive pledged by President Dmitry Medvedev has already been hampered by corruption, infrastructure bottlenecks and a lack of political and media freedom, as well as a lack of entrepreneurship within Russian society.

"The most important thing is not to miss the formation of the new asset bubble," German Gref, CEO of Sberbank and a former economy minister, told a modernisation conference. "This is what we see on both the global and Russian markets."

Russia, which liberalised capital flows in 2006, was subsequently flooded by speculative capital which stalled the economy and created bubbles in stock and real estate markets.

Last month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia would step up efforts to curb speculative capital inflows but no measures have been announced. Analysts often blame the depth of the Russian crisis on "hot money".

A blunt statement from Gref, whose bank controls a quarter of the country's banking assets and has played a key role in fighting the economic crisis, will give more weight to the argument in favour of capital controls.

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told the same conference that, as part of its effort to modernise, Russia would strive to create a common economic space with the European Union and ex-Soviet neighbours Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Russia this year created a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, which came as a surprise and was a blow to both its bid to enter the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and a new partnership agreement with the EU.

Russia is in the midst of a trade row with Belarus over oil exports, but Shuvalov said the three countries would move further to create a closer economic union within two years.

He said Russia would continue its WTO entry negotiations while harmonising the legislation of countries that will form the economic union with the EU legislation.

A common economic space is a long-term ambition shared by both the EU and Russia to remove barriers to trade, investment and the movement of goods and people. It forms part of the partnership agreement that both sides want to finalise.

"Our goal is a space without barriers and visas from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean," Shuvalov said. EU officials have said a deal cannot be struck until after Russia joins the WTO.

ENERGY A FLAGSHIP

Shuvalov, an anti-crisis tsar who now heads the government's economic development commission and is charged with spearheading the modernisation of the Russian economy, also said Russia stood to benefit from a shift from global capital flows.

He said the debt, budget deficit and capital burdens in developed countries were forcing capital to move eastward and that Russia should change to be in a position to handle this capital properly.

"The biggest obstacle to modernisation is ourselves," Shuvalov said. "The business-as-usual ideology is widespread -- let's wait until high prices for oil, gas and metals return and live as before."

Shuvalov also pledged to scrap profit tax on private businesses in the healthcare and education sectors this year and hinted innovative business could be served tax breaks when the government unveils its new tax policy guidelines in February.

Oil major BP Plc CEO Tony Hayward was quick to stress the role of international oil majors in Russia's modernisation, saying the energy sector should lead such efforts.

"Russia should see its energy industry as a flagship for modernisation and a focus for innovation," Hayward said. "I also believe that, for the decade ahead, the Russian oil and gas sector will remain the backbone of Russia's economy." (Editing by Andy Bruce)

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