* Government pegs hopes of deficit cut on growth -analysts
* Central bank says govt estimates optimistic
* Election calendar curbs scope for spending cuts
By Gabriela Baczynska and Kuba Jaworowski
WARSAW, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Poland's updated roadmap for joining the euro estimates economic growth of 3.4 percent growth in 2010, 4.5 percent next year and 4.2 percent in 2012, higher than previous government and market forecasts.
Analysts said figures given by Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak suggested the government was being too optimistic about recovery and was clearly hoping it would not have to impose painful spending cuts ahead of elections due this year and next.
Central bank governor Slawomir Skrzypek also said the figures were "slightly more optimistic" than the bank's own estimates. [ID:nLDE612214
The convergence plan is expected to be published shortly.
Poland, the only member of the 27-nation European Union not to have gone through a recession during the global financial crisis, expanded by 1.7 percent in 2009 but faces a rising deficit and debt which analysts say demand tough fiscal reforms.
A fiscal consolidation plan published last week envisaged reducing its general government deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by end-2012 from 7.2 percent in 2009 but contained mostly longer-term measures that analysts said failed to address the need for more immediate action.
"Such an approach only confirms that the planned fall of deficit to 3 percent of GDP ... is based mainly on the expected improvement in the overall economic situation while the proposed ... reforms do not reduce the structural deficit significantly," said Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING Bank in Warsaw.
Echoing this caution, the central bank's Skrzypek told reporters: "It is extremely difficult to adjust the deficit from 6 percent to 3 percent in one year."
EU COMMISSION HOPEFUL
However, in a report sure to be welcomed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centre-right government, the European Commission said on Wednesday it was confident that Poland would be able to reduce its deficit to below the EU's 3 percent ceiling in 2012.
The finance ministry also said the central government deficit came in at 23.8 billion zlotys ($8.39 billion) in 2009, below a budget estimate of 27.2 billion, thanks to better-than-expected tax revenues. [ID:nLDE6121OK]
"On the one hand, the cautious forecasts from August (when the budget was amended), on the other the better state of the Polish economy allowed for this result," Deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki said in a statement.
Warsaw's growth expectations for 2010 have evolved from a conservative 1.2 percent forecast in the budget to above 2 percent recently suggested by Tusk and even 2.5 percent hinted at by Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski.
"There is certainly a lot of upside to growth from here. However I think (the government) has now flipped from being overly pessimistic last year to now being overly optimistic," said Peter Attard Montalto, analyst at Nomura Bank in London.
Tusk's centre-right government had been expected to approve its updated euro convergence plan on Tuesday but the junior coalition party caused a delay after expressing concerns about a proposed shakeup of farmers' pensions. [ID:nLDE6112KK]
Marek Sawicki, agriculture minister and a member of the junior coalition partner the Peasant's Party, said the convergence plan could now be approved on Wednesday.
"The convergence plan will most likely include only vague ideas," Benecki said, adding it was "obvious" that the approach of elections had sapped the government's reforming zeal.
Poland's rising general government deficit and public debt pose a threat not only to Warsaw's plans to join the euro zone but also to economic recovery if debt safety levels are breached and mandatory painful fiscal cuts are triggered.
Under Polish law, the government would have to introduce varying degrees of budget tightening when public debt tops 50, 55 and 60 percent of GDP, even though those levels are not particularly high compared to some other EU countries.
The debt to GDP ratio is seen coming in just below 50 percent in 2009 and some analysts warn that it could top 55 percent this year, especially as Warsaw now expects its 2010 general government deficit to stand at 6.9-7.0 percent of GDP.
Poles will elect a president in the autumn and a new parliament next year. Tusk's pro-market, pro-euro Civic Platform (PO) is well placed to win both elections, opinion polls show. (Writing by Gareth Jones, editing by Patrick Graham)