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WRAPUP 1-NZ set for slower Q2 contraction after trade data

Published 06/29/2009, 12:56 AM
Updated 06/29/2009, 01:29 AM
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* Fresh data suggest NZ economy pulling out of tailspin

* Economy on track for smaller contraction in Q2

* Rising trade surplus points to current account improvement

* Building approvals rise for second month

WELLINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - New Zealand posted its fourth consecutive monthly trade suplus in May while the housing sector showed further signs of improvement, suggesting the economy is slowly pulling out of its longest recession on record.

"The rate of contraction in the economy likely eased significantly in the second quarter," said Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs, expecting a 0.3 percent decline.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also forecast the contraction to slow to 0.3 percent in the second quarter, while analysts at ANZ-National expect 0.5 percent.

A series of official data on Monday pointed to signs that the country may emerge from recession by the end of this year. The economy has contracted for the past five quarters, shrinking 1.0 percent in each of the past two quarters.

The latest data reinforces expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates steady at 2.5 percent at its next meeting on July 30, while the market is already pricing in a rate increase in early 2010.

Rising dairy exports, combined with a sharp fall in imports due to recession, lifted the country's trade surplus to NZ$858 million ($554 million) last month, the largest since June 1993.

The annual trade shortfall narrowed to NZ$3.04 billion in the 12 months to May 31 from NZ$4.07 billion in the year through April, Statistics New Zealand reported.

The gain in exports was driven by improved demand for dairy and wood products. Imports were hit by a slump in vehicles and fertiliser.

"Another month like this in June and we can look forward to the second quarter current account deficit heading below 8 percent of GDP," said ANZ-National senior economist Khoon Goh. "We still see the currency and weak overall global backdrop as key headwinds".

Central bank Governor Alan Bollard said this month the economy was near its low point and should start growing by the end of the year, but strength in the New Zealand dollar could derail a recovery.

Since early March, the New Zealand dollar has risen about 30 percent against the U.S. currency as investors shifted back into higher-yielding, high-risk assets amid signs of stabilisation in global financial markets.

On Monday, the kiwi was steady around around $0.6442/47 at 0400 GMT after pushing to a high of $0.6477 following the trade and building data.

Helped by the strong trade surplus, analysts said the current account deficit was also poised to narrow.

Deutsche's Gibbs expected the current account deficit to narrow to around 7 percent of GDP in the second quarter, and ANZ-National expected 6.8 percent.

New Zealand has been in recession since the start of 2008, which has seen a slump in consumer goods and capital equipment imports, while the global slowdown has hit demand for and the price of some of the country's main commodities.

The number of new dwelling consents approved rose as the housing sector showed signs of levelling out amid low interest rates, after sharply declining over the past 19 months.

"This is in line with our view that housing will cease to be a drag on growth in the second half, contributing to a stabilisation in the economy," said UBS senior economist Robin Clements.

Separately, the central bank reported that household borrowing rose in May, but consumers remained cautious, with the seasonally adjusted borrowing up 0.4 percent to NZ$176.5 billion last month, after a 0.2 percent rise in April. (Reporting by Mantik Kusjanto; Editing by...)

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