* Estimates for India's sugar output are scaled down
* Crushing season to be delayed by a month
* Prices, imports seen up on lower output, crushing delay
* Low rain forecast in most cane areas in next 3-4 days
(Adds details, quotes)
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI, Aug 4 (Reuters) - India's sugar output may be lower than previously estimated and cane crushing is likely to start later than normal, further reducing stocks before new-season sugar is produced and raising prospects of rapid imports.
The country's sugar output in 2009/10 is expected to reach 17 million tonnes, lower than the previously estimated 17.5-18.5 million tonnes, as erratic rains are likely to cut yields, Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of Maharashtra State Co-operative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd, said.
"The situation in Uttar Pradesh is not good. There we may witness a drop in the output," he said.
Scanty rainfall is likely to hit output in the northern Uttar Pradesh state, the biggest cane producer, and the western Maharashtra state, the biggest producer of refined sugar.
The weather office has forecast heavy rains only in eastern and northeastern India, where cane output is insignificant.
Maharashtra is likely to produce 4.7 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September 2010, 11.3 percent lower than the previously estimated by trade, the state's cooperative minister, Harshvardhan Patil, told Reuters.
"My revised estimate (for India) is 17 million tonnes for 2009/10," Naiknavare said.
This is 15.6 percent more than last year's estimated production of 14.7 million tonnes, but 15 percent lower than initial estimate made for 2009/10 in June.
India, uses about 22.5 million tonnes and is the world's biggest consumer. In some years it produces a surplus, while in others it swings to become a major net importer.
India has extended its scheme for duty-free raw sugar imports until March and white sugar imports up to November.
"We need imports to meet domestic demand. But international prices are very high. They should come down to make imports viable," said Veeresh Hiremath, a senior analyst with Karvy Comtrade Ltd. "Or domestic prices should move up."
White sugar futures hit a record high and raw sugar touched a 3-1/2-year peak for a second day on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Indian demand prospects and concern over slow cane harvesting in top grower Brazil.
CRUSHING DELAY
Lower cane output will force mills in Maharashtra to start crushing from Nov. 1, a month later than normal, Patil said, while industry officials in Uttar Pradesh also said erratic rains may delay new-season production.
A delay in the start of crushing means supplies would not increase from mid-October but from mid-November, Hiremath said.
This would mean it would take longer to replenish India's depleting sugar stocks, which are likely to fall to 4 million tonnes in October from 10 million a year ago, according to government estimates.
Lower output and demand for the August-October festive season has pushed up domestic prices to a record.
In Kolhapur, a key market in Maharashtra, the price of the most traded S-variety sugar has risen over 8 percent in two days to 2,551.5 rupees per 100 kg.
"Because of the festive season millers are bullish. Ex-mill prices are around 2,400 rupees (per 100kg) that may rise to 2,500 rupees," Naiknavare said. (Editing by Anthony Barker)