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WRAPUP 1-Japan firms' grim mood to put BOJ exit plans on ice

Published 07/01/2009, 01:39 AM
Updated 07/01/2009, 01:57 AM

(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click)

* BOJ tankan: record pessimism past but view still negative

* Corporate funding eases but BOJ seen continuing support

* Big firms' capex plans weaker than expected

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, July 1 (Reuters) - Japanese business morale improved less than expected in June, plagued by doubts about the global economy, giving the central bank little room to retreat from ruptured corporate finance markets.

Large manufacturers, their export markets wrecked by the financial crisis, plan a record cut in capital spending this fiscal year, nearly twice as much as they forecast in March when talk of recovery triggered a global stock market rally.

The mood among smaller companies was darker still, and across the board there were concerns that firms were not seeing the demand needed to maintain payrolls or start using mothballed plants.

"The overall impression is that Japanese firms are facing a more severe situation than market players think," said Susumu Kato, chief economist at Calyon Capital Markets Japan.

The survey's main sentiment index for big manufacturers improved to minus 48 in June from a record low of minus 58 in the previous quarterly survey in March, the first rise in two and a half years.

That was still worse than a median forecast in a Reuters poll of minus 43, and pessimists still far outnumbered optimists.

For graphic tracking Japanese corporate sentiment, click http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/JP_BMSNT0709.jpg

The market was also watching the tankan's gauges of corporate funding because the Bank of Japan said it would take its cue from the survey when it reviews programmes to buy corporate bonds and commercial paper, which expire in September.

The survey showed the corporate finance market, which seized up after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September, was on the mend.

The financial conditions index for large companies rose 5 points to plus 1, the first improvement in eight quarters, while the gauge of conditions for commercial paper issues gained for the first time in six quarters.

TALK OF TIGHTENING

That was not enough to prod the central bank into action at a time of growing investor concern that Japan was slipping deeper into its second spell of deflation this decade, analysts said.

"Many of the BOJ's measures to support corporate finance are no longer needed," said Takeo Okuhara, an economist at Daiwa SB Asset Management. "But the BOJ is also wary of deflation and doesn't want to raise speculation that it will tighten its policy. So the BOJ will maintain those measures."

Weaker domestic demand helped drive a record drop in Japanese core consumer prices in May, and the highest unemployment rate in 5-½ years is threatening to overwhelm government efforts to revive spending.

The employment index for all firms, which tends to lead jobless rate trends, rose to plus 23 from 20 in March, showing companies feel the number of staff on their payrolls exceed business needs by the widest margin in 10 years.

For a graphic tracking employment click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/JP_EMP0709.jpg

Adding to deflationary pressure, land prices fell 5.5 percent in 2008, marking the first decline in four years, a government survey showed on Wednesday.

LOOKING FOR THE DOOR?

While a recent spike in oil prices has sparked debate on how the world's central banks should exit from their easing, many analysts think the BOJ has no such plan in the near future.

"Considering improvement in sentiment was limited and that further improvement is relying on various policy steps, today's tankan hardly provides a reason to seek exit strategies," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS.

"It even shows rising deflationary pressure," she added.

There was no sign companies believed a tentative rebound in exports, mainly as a result of restocking of depleted inventory, would translate into growing demand.

Big manufacturers plan to cut capital spending by a record 24.3 percent in the fiscal year that started on April 1. In March they had been planning a 13.2 percent cut.

Capital spending sank at a record pace in the first quarter, dragging GDP into a record contraction that many economists believe was the nadir of this recession. Economists polled by Reuters expect 0.4 percent growth in April-June.

Most companies said they expect business conditions to improve in the next three months. Big manufacturers' outlook for September stood at minus 30.

Financial markets showed muted response to the data, with both the Japanese yen and Nikkei share average hugging their recent ranges. (Additional reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara and Stanley White; Editing by Michael Watson & Jan Dahinten)

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