* Indonesia inflation falls, raises rate cut odds
* Philippines central bank talks of room to ease policy
* Analysts say rupiah will stay under pressure
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, March 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's inflation hit a year low in February, giving its central bank room to cut policy rates again this week, even though economists fear the move will be of little use to a tumbling rupiah and struggling businesses.
Monday's news of a further drop in inflation coincided with data that showed Indonesia's trade surplus halved in January from a year earlier after exports plunged 36 percent, buttressing the views of rupiah bears who believe the commodity exporter's current account will be a strain on the currency this year. [ID:nJKB001088].
In Manila, central bank deputy governor Diwa Guinigundo suggested February inflation may not drop much, but favourable broader price outlook still gave it leeway to cut policy rates.
The central bank reviews rates on Thursday, just hours after inflation data.
Bank Indonesia meets on Wednesday. At 8.25 percent, its overnight policy rate is still among the highest in Asia and eight out of 11 economists polled by Reuters expect it to drop to 8 percent this week. Three see a 50 basis point cut.
"We think the central bank will cut its key rate by 50 basis points as the economic growth slowdown is likely to be pretty significant. That is the trend around the world," said Helmi Arman, economist, Bank Danamon in Jakarta.
"At times like this, the cost of keeping rates at high levels is higher than the potential cost of cutting rates aggressively."
In the Philippines, analysts believe that the central bank will cut rates by another half a point to a 17-year low of 4.5 percent, a view reinforced by Guinigundo's comments.
"If we have the flexibility afforded to us by favourable inflation outlook and well-anchored inflation expectations, monetary policy has flexibility of further easing," he told a business forum on Monday. [ID:nMNA000147]
RUPIAH WORRIES ASIDE
A drop in Indonesian inflation to 8.6 percent, its lowest since March 2008, convinced most market participants that the central bank will ease its policy further, brushing aside concerns about adding to the pressures on the rupiah.
"The interest rate differential is not driving the currency," said Sailesh Jha, a Barclays Capital economist.
"What's driving the currency really is more the capital flows relating to heavy external debt amortisations, and payments due for the corporate sector."
The broad aversion to risky markets and banks' unwillingness to lend outside their home bases has spurred huge capital outflows from the high-yielding rupiah market.
The rupiah
Jha estimates that Indonesia will have an external funding gap of approximately $30 billion this year, even if the government raises another global sukuk bond.
Last week, Indonesia sold $3 billion of global bonds to help finance a budget deficit that is now forecast to reach 2.5 percent of GDP, partly due to its $6 billion fiscal stimulus.
With the external debt estimated at $151.7 billion and demand for credit still strong at home, the country faces huge debt servicing and refinancing pressures.
In the Jakarta interbank market
Under those circumstances, a rate cut would help, at least by signalling the government's intent to see yields fall, even if the external funding gap and current account deficit keep the rupiah under pressure.
Barclays' Jha forecasts the rupiah will hit 13,500-per-dollar in the next 2 months and 15,500 by June -- a 22 percent plunge from Monday's levels near 12,000.
"We're looking for them to go to the IMF ultimately because there's not enough funding for them to plug that gap," Jha said.
Declining currencies could potentially complicate monetary easing in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia, which are most at risk of capital outflows and currency weakening, which could then feed into higher inflation via costlier imports.
In a region where several countries could statistically at least be reporting deflation in the first half of 2009, Indonesia and the Philippines stand out with still relatively strong price increases.
In fact, Indonesia's core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, held broadly steady in February at around 7.4 percent and the Philippine central sees headline inflation in a 6.6-7.5 percent range. By contrast, Thailand reported an annual 0.1 percent drop in consumer prices last month, underpinning expectations of further interest rate cuts. (Editing by Tomasz Janowski)