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WRAPUP 1-India rate cuts seen as cbank says outlook uncertain

Published 12/11/2008, 08:19 AM
Updated 12/11/2008, 08:25 AM

* Cbank governor says near-term economic outlook uncertain

* India's annual inflation falls to an 8-month low

* Reuters poll: GDP growth at 6-yr low of 6.8 percent in 08/09

By Surojit Gupta and Rajkumar Ray

NEW DELHI, Dec 11 (Reuters) - India's economy may need more stimulus steps to follow up those announced at the weekend, policy makers and economists said on Thursday as growth worries gathered pace and inflation fell to an 8-month low in November.

With inflation falling rapidly and analysts forecasting growth in the current fiscal year to March 2009 to be the slowest in six years, Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was ready to act quickly to right the economy.

"The situation, way forward is quite uncertain. The RBI will take appropriate action as and when required," Subbarao told reporters after a board meeting in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata.

"The RBI will continue to closely monitor the developments in the global and domestic financial markets and will take swift and effective action as appropriate."

Subbarao's comments, which followed his remarks on Wednesday that the growth forecast for 2008/09 was likely to be cut and that there would be a period of painful adjustment, drove 10-year bond yields to a four-year low of 6.44 percent.

Last weekend, the central bank cut its key short-term borrowing and lending rates by 1 percentage point, and the government unveiled a fiscal package including $4 billion of extra spending to stimulate activity.

On Thursday, the trade minister said a package for exporters would be considered next week.

"With growth slowing at a faster pace than earlier anticipated, we expect the RBI to ease monetary policy further in the January review," Yes Bank chief economist Shubhada Rao said.

Annual inflation fell to eight-month low of 8 percent in late November, data showed on Thursday. Analysts said its rapid fall from just under 13 percent in early August left plenty of room for further rate cuts.

"We are pencilling in a deflationary patch around July 2009, leaving ample scope for the RBI to cut repo and reverse repo rates further," said Sonal Verma, economist at Nomura in Mumbai.

SLOWING GROWTH

The economy has grown at or above 9 percent for the past three fiscal years, but authorities are scrambling to halt a downturn in Asia's third-biggest economy as the global credit crisis pulls developed economies into recession.

The central bank's current forecast is for economic growth of 7.5 to 8 percent in 2008/09, but many now see that as optimistic.

A Reuters poll showed economists expect India's economy to grow 6.8 percent in 2008/09, its slowest in six year, and 6.2 percent the following year.

Signs of the slowdown are mounting. Figures on Wednesday showed car sales dropped by nearly a fifth in November, the worst fall in eight years, as high borrowing costs, tight credit and a slowing economy dragged down demand

Sales of trucks and buses, closely linked to industrial activity, slumped by nearly a half from a year earlier.

Data on Friday is forecast to show industrial output grew just 2.2 percent in October from a year earlier, and a survey earlier this month showed manufacturing output shrank for the first time in 3-1/2 years in November.

The chief of India's biggest bank, State Bank of India, said there was some concern the economy would require further stimulus beyond what has already been announced.

"There are still concerns the economy may require more," SBI Chairman O.P. Bhatt told reporters at a banking conference in New Delhi, although he did not elaborate on what was needed. (Additional reporting by Manoj Kumar and C.J. Kuncheria and Swati Bhat in MUMBAI) (Editing by John Mair and Andy Bruce)

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