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WRAPUP 1-Germany, France suffer from global trade slump

Published 04/08/2009, 11:23 AM
Updated 04/08/2009, 11:32 AM
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* German exports fall 23.1 percent on the year in February

* German industry orders fall by more than expected

* French exports sink 20.9 percent y/y in February

By Paul Carrel

BERLIN, April 8 (Reuters) - German exports fell for a fifth month running in February and in France exports dropped by more than a fifth on the year, aggravating recessionary pressures in the euro zone's two biggest economies as global trade slows sharply.

German exports fell by 0.7 percent on the month and figures for January were revised down to show a 7.4-percent slump, compared to 4.4 percent originally reported. Unadjusted exports dropped by 23.1 percent on the year in February and imports fell 16.4 percent.

Adding to the bleak news out of Germany, Europe's largest economy, a sharp drop in domestic demand led a steeper-than-expected 3.5-percent fall in manufacturing orders in February, Economy Ministry data released on Wednesday showed.

"The fall in incoming orders in Germany is unprecedented. In just six months (since August last year) orders are down by 33.3 percent," Citigroup economist Juergen Michels wrote in a research note.

"We expect a further contraction in GDP in the second quarter, but probably a smaller one than in the first quarter, and forecast some stabilisation of economic activity in the second half," he added.

In the final quarter of 2008, GDP contracted by 2.1 percent and many analysts expect the economy to have shrunk by even more in the first three months of this year. Germany is facing its deepest recession since World War Two this year.

As the world's largest exporter of goods, Germany enjoyed robust foreign demand for its manufactured products until the economic downturn took hold last year and sent the export-orientated economy sharply into reverse.

The domestic economy is now suffering too, with retail sales falling in February and Wednesday's trade data showing imports fell by 4.2 percent in February.

A Reuters poll of economists published on Wednesday pointed to gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 4.4 percent this year, dragged down by falling exports and private consumption.

STALLING TRADE

Germany and France accounted for 45 percent of euro zone exports last year, but their businesses are now being hit by the global economic downturn stemming from the financial crisis.

Earlier on Wednesday, German carmaker Daimler forecast a significant drop in revenue in all of its automotive businesses this year and pushed back its expectations of when the crisis-hit sector may recover.

Last month, Air France-KLM ditched its forecast for an operating profit in the current financial year as a slump in trade rocks airlines.

In France, imports and exports both fell sharply on the year in February, indicating the depth of the economic slowdown. Exports totalled 28.86 billion euros, compared with 36.5 billion euros last year.

"We're importing less because we're spending less and companies are investing less," said Alexander Law, an analyst at Paris researchers Xerfi.

Separately, the Bank of France in its latest survey revised down its first quarter economic forecast, saying it expected the French economy to shrink by 0.8 percent in the period against a previous prediction for a 0.6 percent contraction.

Many independent analysts are predicting French growth will decline by at least one percentage point in the first quarter.

Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer told France's BFM radio he expected the French economy to stabilise by year-end and to grow from early 2010.

In Germany, a study by state-owned bank KfW and the Ifo economic institute showed morale among small and mid-sized firms -- the so-called "Mittelstand" -- hit a record low in March. (Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Editing by Andy Bruce)

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