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WRAPUP 1-European businesses, consumers gloomy going into Q2

Published 03/26/2009, 08:15 AM
Updated 03/26/2009, 08:32 AM
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* Italian business morale hits new record low

* German consumer morale slips; French steady at low level

* Euro zone business lending dips

By Paul Carrel

BERLIN, March 26 (Reuters) - Italian business morale fell to a record low in March and consumers' gloom refused to lift in France and Germany, highlighting the weak state of the euro zone's top three economies as they limp into the second quarter.

The reports, all released on Thursday, tallied with news a day earlier that German corporate sentiment also fell to a record low in March, reminding G20 leaders of the severity of the economic crisis as they prepare to meet in a week.

Compounding the bleak picture, European Central Bank figures showed euro zone business lending dipped again in February after a rebound the month before and that growth in household borrowing virtually ground to a halt. [ID:nLQ185025]

"Loans to enterprises and to households have been very weak. This reflects the very weak economic environment," said Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert.

"This is another signal for the ECB to lower rates further, 50 basis points in April, why wait?" he added.

In an opinion piece in Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper, Britain's finance minister, Alistair Darling, listed low interest rates, as well as fiscal stimulus and easier credit, as instruments the G20 countries should use to boost demand.

British retail sales plunged in February, posting the lowest annual growth rate in more than four years, as heavy snow and economic gloom kept consumers away from the shops, official data also released on Thursday showed.

In Italy, business confidence fell for the tenth consecutive month in March, with shrinking order books and growing inventories providing no hope of a recovery any time soon.

RISKS WORSEN

Italian economic research institute ISAE's business morale index fell to 59.8 from 63.2 in February -- coming in below all forecasts in a Reuters' poll of 21 analysts. [ID:nLQ134456]

"I was expecting signs of at least some kind of stabilisation but this data shows recessionary risks have worsened," said Unicredit MIB analyst Marco Valli.

"The crisis seems to be extending and there's no sign of improvement. Risks continue to be on the downside," he said.

Business lobby Confindustria emphasised how bad Italy's immediate prospects were by slashing its forecast for gross domestic product in 2009 to a contraction of 3.5 percent, citing a sharp drop in industrial output.

European industry is suffering from a collapse in foreign demand due to the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

In Germany, industrial orders slumped 8 percent and output by a record 7.5 percent in January. Pointing to these declines, Commerzbank forecast on Monday a contraction in the economy, Europe's largest, of 6 to 7 percent in 2009.

German consumer morale should fall slightly in April after the grim run of economic reports and downbeat forecasts, market research group GfK said.

GfK's forward-looking gauge of sentiment, based on a survey of some 2,000 Germans, fell for April, ending a six-month run of consecutive rises. [ID:nLQ180149]

In neighbouring France, Germany's biggest trading partner, business confidence stuck at a record low in March as bosses fretted about empty order books. The French consumer confidence data showed morale unchanged from the February level. [ID:nLQ80348]

"Consumer confidence, as expected, has stabilised at a very, very low level," said Alexander Law, an analyst with Paris researchers XERFI.

French households were increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for their future standard of living, national statistics office INSEE said.

"Households no longer fear inflation, but they are very pessimistic about the labour market so that weighs very heavily on morale," said Jean-Louis Mourier, analyst at Aurel-BCG.

France's headline jobless total jumped 79,900 in February to 2,384,800, data released on Wednesday showed, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Sarkozy to help struggling households and stem a wave of plant closures.

"What we need is a big psychological factor to really bolster confidence although it's hard to see where that could come from," said Law at Xerfi. (Additional reporting by Brian Rohan in Berlin, Krista Hughes and Marc Jones in Frankfurt, Crispian Balmer in Paris, and Stephen Brown in Rome; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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