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WRAPUP 1-ECB to keep liquidity lifeline at least this year

Published 09/28/2009, 01:43 PM
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* Nowotny: overwhelming ECB view that no exit this year

* Trichet says cannot keep strong liquidity supply forever

* Says strong dollar extremely important

By Boris Groendahl and John O'Donnell

VIENNA/BRUSSELS, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will not withdraw its liquidity lifeline before the end of the year but cannot keep up support forever, ECB policymakers said on Monday.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank's massive supply of liquidity would be phased out over time, while ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said most policymakers thought it would be premature to start this year.

"Given the state of the economy as it is now it is for the time being, that means for this year, we do not see a need to start executing an exit strategy," Nowotny said at the Reuters Central European Investment Summit in Vienna. [[ID:nLS314689]

"The overwhelming view is that we do not need to start now."

The ECB has pumped billions of euros into money markets in an attempt to restore order and to reduce the cost of borrowing for banks, firms and consumers.

For many commercial banks the cash has become the dominant source of funding, but Trichet stressed it would not last indefinitely.

"The strong intervention of the Eurosystem in the euro area money market cannot be maintained forever," he told a hearing of a European Parliament committee in Brussels. [ID:nLS314160]

"The ECB has an exit strategy and stands ready to put it into action when the appropriate time comes."

Trichet brushed off concerns the ECB's liquidity injections -- to be bolstered on Wednesday with its second loan of 12-month funds -- would fuel inflation in the 16-nation region.

He also confirmed his support for a strong U.S. currency in more direct comments than usual. The euro hit a 12-month high against the dollar last week .

"As regards the dollar, I would say that in the present situation it is extremely important that we can have in the framework at the level of the global finance and the global economy a strong dollar," Trichet said. "The solidity of the dollar is very important."

Previously, Trichet had said that U.S. authorities' support for a strong dollar was very important.

LIFE SUPPORT

In an interview with Reuters Television, Deutsche Bank chief economist Norbert Walter said a rise in the euro next year to $1.60 would mean the ECB would not have to raise rates from the current record low 1 percent, given the dampening effect of a strong currency. [ID:nLS184249]

Economists do not expect rates in the 16-nation euro region to rise before the third quarter of next year, but the ECB has given no clear sign on whether it will mop up liquidity before hiking rates, or the vice versa.

A Reuters poll showed on Monday that money market traders expect banks to borrow another 135 billion in 12-month funds on Wednesday, and the ECB will start withdrawing excess funds within the next 12 months.

(To read poll please double-click on [ID:nLS298585])

Nowotny said money markets were starting to work again, although it was too early to say that they were fully back in safe territory.

"This is a field where 'life support' from the central banks may not be needed in this full amount in the future," he said.

"There are very slight improvements going on market by market but it is too early to say that we are fully on the safe side."

On the euro zone economy, the Austrian central bank chief said the inflation outlook was subdued and it would take until at least 2012 for it to return to its pre-crisis levels, although the worst was over for now.

"We will experience in most (European) countries in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 positive growth rates, so that means technically the recession will end this year," he said.

"What we see is that this very strong and dramatic decline of the economy has reached the bottom."

"But the growth that we see is still very sluggish for the next year. For 2010 for the euro zone there will be growth rates of 0.5-1 percent. That means it is a very slow recovery, the economy is very weak," Nowotny said.

In his remarks, Trichet also said he opposed a so-called 'Tobin tax' on all international financial transactions, an issue Group of 20 leaders asked the International Monetary Fund to consider after last week's Pittsburgh meetings. "As regard the Tobin tax, I am against," he said simply. (Additional reporting by Sylvia Westall in Vienna, Marc Jones in Frankfurt and Karan Belani and Kevin Kumar in Bangalore, writing by Krista Hughes and Marc Jones)

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