* Commerce ministry, bank regulator caution on export outlook
* That concern seen feeding caution on monetary, FX policy
* C.bank chief notes must keep eye on more than inflation
* French PM keeps up pressure on yuan
* Government think-tank reiterates stable yuan needed
By Jason Subler and Zhou Xin
BEIJING, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China warned it cannot be "blindly optimistic" that its export sector will improve next year, underlining officials' caution about moving too quickly to tighten policy now that the economy has shown signs of recovery.
Exports have been hit hard by the global financial turmoil, falling 18.8 percent in the first 11 months from a year earlier.
Many economists expect exports to return to growth next year, but cautious comments from the Ministry of Commerce and top banking regulator Liu Mingkang serve as reminders that policymakers will take time before they are confident exporters are on more solid footing.
That, in turn, could prompt them to remain cautious on tightening policy, including in terms of whether, when and by how much they might let the yuan strengthen next year after being held steady against the dollar since mid-2008.
"The world economy will turn for the better in 2010, but the recovery will still not be on solid ground, the influence of the crisis will still be felt, external demand will have difficulty returning to its level before the global financial crisis," the ministry said on its website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).
"China's external trade situation will be increasingly complex, our task more formidable and we cannot be blindly optimistic," it said in a statement summing up its policy moves in 2009 and plans for next year.
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
Continuing uncertainty over the strength of recovery in the United States, Europe and Japan looms as one of the biggest question marks for China's economy, the world's third largest.
Liu, head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, also expressed caution over the outlook for exports.
"Weak external demand, in our view, will be a long-term situation and the situation will not immediately improve," Liu told a conference organised by a research institution of the central bank.
"We cannot be blindly optimistic," he said, adding that the uncertainty over exports made it even more important to carry out structural reforms to the economy to make it less reliant on exports, particularly in polluting industries.
With economic growth expected to surpass 8 percent this year and pick up further next year, policymakers' focus is turning away from simply spurring activity and towards improving the makeup of the economy.
Some analysts are already pointing to the danger of overheating, with money supply growing at a record pace and evidence of bubbles forming in the real estate sector.
Still, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan emphasised that in setting monetary policy, the People's Bank of China must keep many factors in mind, including but not limited to inflation.
"Balance of international payments is a very important issue, as international payments have a very noticeable impact on domestic money supply and inflation," Zhou said, underlining the idea that Beijing does not seek a large trade surplus.
Chinese officials have long said the country aims for basic balance in international payments. However, the surplus in the first 11 months of this year was still a large $178 billion, albeit down 30.6 percent from a year earlier.
Zhou did not comment specifically on Beijing's policy on the yuan, stressing instead that authorities had many tools at their disposal, including adjusting banks' required reserves.
Many analysts expect the central bank to start lifting policy rates in the first half of next year while an appreciation in the yuan is seen to be unlikely until the latter half.
FRENCH ON YUAN
French Prime Minister Francois Fillon kept up the pressure on the yuan on Tuesday, telling an audience of university students in Beijing that a more flexible yuan would benefit China, in part by increasing its consumers' purchasing power.
In its own statement, the Commerce Ministry did not outline the need for a stable currency, as it has often done in the past.
Instead, it spelled out steps it will take to improve balance in its trade, something that could tone down outside pressure for the yuan to strengthen and stoke demand for natural resources and other inputs.
"We will try to increase imports, supporting imports of high-tech equipment, of key parts and of materials unavailable domestically. We will increase imports and reserves of strategic resources in a timely manner, and we will aim to lift unreasonable restrictions on imports," it said.
The State Information Centre, a top government think-tank, forecast on Tuesday that exports would rise by about 6 percent next year, marking a recovery from this year's slump.
The think-tank warned in a report published in an official newspaper that the yuan would face mounting pressure to strengthen against the dollar next year, but it reiterated the long-standing government line that yuan appreciation would harm China's global competitiveness. (Additional reporting by Simon Rabinovitch and Clement Guillou in Beijing, and Lu Jianxin in Shanghai; Editing by Ken Wills & Kazunori Takada)