* Policy-makers see benign inflation scenario
* Meirelles warns on forex measures to protect economy
* Despite pressures, inflation seen converging to target
* Yields on rate futures firm after minutes
By Elzio Barreto
SAO PAULO, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank signaled Thursday that it is unlikely to raise interest rates in coming months, though concerns over food prices and an overvalued currency continue to hover over an otherwise robust economy.
In minutes from last week's monetary policy meeting, at which the bank left rates unchanged, policymakers said they saw inflation falling closer to the central bank's target range of 4.5 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The outlook underscored the bank's belief that Brazil's economy remains in a charmed pattern of high growth and relatively low inflation, despite some pressure from rising food prices and robust consumer demand.
"The assumption is that this (recent) hump in inflation will be temporary, despite the heated economy," said Zeina Latif, senior Latin America economist at RBS in Sao Paulo. "There are risks, of course, but I see no problem in keeping rates stable and waiting for more signs."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on the Selic rate: http://link.reuters.com/pup68k
Graphic on forex intervention: http://r.reuters.com/kuv79p
Analysis on Brazil's forex reform: [ID:nN26120199]
Factbox on political risks in Brazil: [ID:nRISKBR]
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Instead, Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles focused on what seems to be the biggest risk to Brazil's economy at the moment -- the real, which like the currencies of many other emerging markets is strengthening against a weak U.S. dollar.
Meirelles urged that the world's largest economies agree on coordinated efforts to prevent currency volatility at next month's meeting of G20 leaders in South Korea. However, he suggested Brazil could go its own way until a deal is reached.
"Obviously, while we don't get there, each country will have to take measures to protect their own currency," Meirelles told reporters in Sao Paulo. "We are taking action to protect the Brazilian economy."
NO RATE MOVE
This year Brazil's economy, the largest in Latin America, is set to grow more than 7 percent -- its fastest pace in more than two decades, boosted by public works projects and a surge in credit.
The rapid expansion pressured consumer prices as more and more Brazilians line up to buy new cars, homes and appliances, prompting the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 2 percentage points between April and September before pausing.
The benchmark Selic rate, at 10.75 percent, is among the
highest in the world and is attracting a flood of U.S. dollars
from overseas investors that has sparked a 5 percent rally in
the Brazilian real
Recent data point to an improved balance of risks for government administered prices, the central bank's economic policy committee, known as Copom, said in the minutes. Still, the bank said is ready to change monetary policy quickly if pressures on consumer prices increase.
Analysts in a weekly central bank survey expect the Selic to stay at 10.75 percent through the end of 2010, leaving it for central bank officials in Brazil's next administration to decide whether to hike rates to keep prices in check.
All polls released recently forecast Brazilian ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff winning a runoff vote on Sunday by a wide margin. One of her biggest challenges will be to control government spending in a bid to slow the economy and ease pressures on inflation.
"In the minutes, they're basically saying they will not move, period. But unless there is a real fiscal consolidation, I mean real consolidation, by the second quarter of 2011 reality will sink in," said Pedro Tuesta, senior Latin America economist at research firm 4Cast Inc in Washington.
Yields on Brazilian interest rate futures contracts
<0#DIJ:> were little changed after the central bank minutes.
The yield on the contract due January 2012
Food prices that have surged in recent weeks are pressuring inflation more than in the recent past, but the central bank has taken those risks into consideration, the minutes said.
"Despite that, at this moment it remains our understanding that the convergence of inflation to the center of the target will likely happen," policymakers said in the minutes. (Additional reporting by Mariane Pinho, Guillermo Parra-Bernal and Todd Benson; Editing by Brian Winter and Chizu Nomiyama)