WRAPUP 1-Brazil markets open lower after vote goes to runoff

Published 10/04/2010, 08:39 AM
Updated 10/04/2010, 08:44 AM

* Bovespa index stock futures fall 0.4 pct

* Yields on rate futures contracts open lower

* Real weakens slightly on view on dovish Selic stance

* Yield on global 2040 rises 6 bps to 2.58 pct

* Runoff seen delaying implementation of currency steps (Recasts to add stock and interest-rate futures trading in paragraph 1, size and context on market moves in paragraphs 3-7)

By Guillermo Parra-Bernal and Luciana Lopez

SAO PAULO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks pointed to a lower open on Monday while global bonds fell, reflecting concern that political tension might heighten in the coming weeks as the nation's presidential election enters a runoff.

The Bovespa stock index futures contract due at the end of the month fell as much as 0.4 percent in early trading, to 70,350. Stock futures are used by investors as a gauge of sentiment in pre-market hours.

The price on the Brazilian dollar-denominated bond due in 2040 fell 0.3 cents on the dollar to 139 cents, pushing yields higher by 6 basis points to 2.58 percent in early morning trading in Sao Paulo, according to Thomson Reuters composite prices. When prices fall, yields go up, indicating deteriorating risk perception.

That signals that investors seem more worried than many analysts over rising political rhetoric as the ruling party candidate failed to secure an outright victory on Sunday's first round vote. Dilma Rousseff placed a strong first but will face a runoff after some voters were turned off at the last minute by a corruption scandal and her views on social issues [ID:nN03268734].

"The confrontational nature of the runoff should add some spice to the contest, and candidates will have to speak out more clearly about their ideas," said Mauricio Rosal, Latin American economist at Raymond James in Sao Paulo.

With almost all votes counted, Rousseff won 46.9 percent of the valid votes. She needed 50 percent to avoid a runoff on Oct. 31. The result was somewhat of a surprise since she received a lower percentage of votes than most polls had forecast.

The real weakened 0.2 percent to 1.682 reais to the dollar, reflecting a view that both candidates may pursue to keep interest rates low for a longer period to spur growth, said a trader at a Sao Paulo-based bank who did not want to be quoted by name.

Traders said the decline in the real was mainly pricing in a sell-off which gripped international trading in late trading on Friday after the local market closed.

Yet, the runoff could delay the implementation of long-awaited measures to arrest rapid gains in the currency, the real , said Doug Smith, head of Latin America economic research at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.

"In fact, we wouldn't look for any significant policy announcements until the election is over for fear that they may hurt Dilma," Smith added.

According to the international reference rate , the real was trading 0.36 percent stronger at 1.6835 early on Monday.

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Full coverage of election: [ID:nBRAZIL]

Special report on Rousseff: http://link.reuters.com/fab25p

Election Top News page: http://link.reuters.com/dux43p

Graphic on polls: http://link.reuters.com/vux47n

Political risks in Brazil: [ID:nRISKBR]

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Rousseff, who was handpicked by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to continue the center-left economic policies that have made Brazil one of the world's hottest emerging markets, will now go up against her nearest rival, former Sao Paulo state governor Jose Serra.

Serra won 32.6 percent of the votes.

Some analysts have also pointed out that the government may wait until the run-off results to implement tougher measures aimed at controlling rising budget expenses and keep inflation in check.

The yield on the interest-rate futures contract due in Jan. 2012 fell 2 basis points to 11.42 percent early on Monday. The yield indicates investors' expectations for the central bank's main interest rate policy toll, the Selic, by year-end. (Editing by W Simon)

(Additional reporting by Samantha Pearson and Silvio Cascione in Sao Paulo) ((guillermo.parra@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +55-11-5644-7714; Reuters Messaging: guillermo.parra.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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