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WRAPUP 1-Bank of Korea flags earlier rate rise

Published 12/10/2009, 03:54 AM
Updated 12/10/2009, 03:57 AM

* Bank of Korea chief: rates too low for 5 pct growth in 2010

* Reuters snap poll: rate rise in Q1 now more likely

* One-year T-bond yield rises most in 3 months

* FinMin lifts GDP outlook; President calls for caution

By Seo Eun-kyung

SEOUL, Dec 10 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank offered a clear signal it was ready to raise interest rates as early as February, saying the current level was too low for an economy expected to grow around 5 percent next year.

Bond prices tumbled across the board and the yield curve flattened as investors, who had earlier expected the policy rate to stay on hold for several more months, rushed to increase bets that the Bank of Korea (BOK) will begin tightening sooner.

"He gave a clear signal that the central bank is ready for exit by pointing out that it can't wait for a full recovery in employment," said Yang Jin-mo, a fixed-income analyst at SK Securities.

Speaking after the central bank kept rates on hold at record-low 2 percent for a 10th consecutive month on Thursday, as expected, BOK Governor Lee Seong-tae said said the bank needs to act in a pre-emptive manner before "problems" materialise.

"We should move near to the door for a timely exit. Now we are away from the door," he told reporters.

"The current 2 percent rate is too low given the 5 percent economic growth (seen for 2010)," Lee added.

The one-year treasury bond yield shot up 11 basis points to 3.30 percent and the benchmark 5-year yield jumped 9 basis points to 4.79 percent.

Eight out of 11 analysts in a Reuters poll conducted after the policy review saw a rate rise between January and March 2010, compared with a median forecast of second quarter or later in the previous poll early this week.

President Lee Myung-bak called for caution at least until the end of first half of 2010, while the Finance Ministry said expansionary policy would remain in place "for the time being" although it will gradually normalise emergency measures in line with a recovery in the economy and employment.

GROWTH OUTLOOK UPGRADED, PRESIDENT CAUTIOUS

The BOK signalled an imminent rate hike in September, citing concerns about possible asset price bubbles, but toned down its rhetoric after the government introduced measures that helped cool the property market.

A series of domestic data released over the past month, including upwardly revised third-quarter growth, faster than expected inflation last month and continued growth in mortgage lending, pointed to a strong recovery in Asia's fourth largest economy.

But investors had rowed back their expectations for a rate increase deeper into 2010 after the central bank widened its inflation target band for next year and adopted the government's cautious approach on exit strategies.

Despite Governor Lee's hawkish comments, several economists said they were still sceptical of an early tightening because of political pressure on the central bank to keep a loose policy for an extended period.

President Lee's party holds a majority of seats in parliament but faces provincial elections in June next year which could influence Lee's policy for the rest of his term in office until February 2013.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance upgraded its 2010 economic growth forecast to 5 percent from around 4 percent previously but promised to keep the expansionary policy for the time being.

The country's most influential government-run research agency forecast last month Asia's fourth-largest economy would grow by 5.5 percent in 2010 after barely avoiding contraction this year.

The BOK slashed rates by a total of 3.25 percentage points over four months from October 2008 to help the economy wade through the worst global financial crisis in decades. (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Writing by Yoo Choonsik, editing by Jonathan Thatcher & Kazunori Takada)

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